- The Texas is a -38.5 point favorite vs. Mississippi St
- The Mississippi State vs. Texas Total(Over/Under): 62.5 points
- TV Channel: SECN
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-3) visit Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium to take on the Texas Longhorns (4-0) on Sep. 28 in Austin, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15pm EDT.
Texas is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -38.5 (-115).
The Mississippi State vs. Texas Over/Under is 62.5 total points.
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Mississippi State vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Mississippi State | +38.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | + |
| Texas | -38.5 -115 | 62.5 -110 | + |
Mississippi State vs Texas Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Mississippi St and Texas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Mississippi State vs Texas Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Mississippi State will cover the spread with 53.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Mississippi State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.90 Units / 7% ROI)
Texas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+7.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- Texas have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Texas has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+5.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- Texas has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texas Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Quinn Ewers has hit the Passing Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Quinn Ewers has hit the TD Passes Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+3.25 Units / 26% ROI)
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi St is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).
Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas is 4-0 against the spread this college football season (+4 Units / 88.89% ROI).
Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Texas
Mississippi State is 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .448
Mississippi State is 2-7 (.222) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .547
Mississippi State is 4-8 (.333) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-24th-worst in FBS; Average: .547
Mississippi State is 4-10 (.286) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .427
Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State
Texas is undefeated (12-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .604
Texas is 9-2 (.818) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-7th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .508
Texas is 16-2 (.889) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-13th-best in FBS; Average: .651
Texas is undefeated (12-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .535
Matchup Notes for Mississippi State vs. Texas
Texas has gained 1,286 yards on 89 receptions (14.4 YPR) this season — T-23rd-best among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.9 Yards Per Reception this season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
Quinn Ewers (TEX) has completed 73.4% of passes (58/79) this season — T-9th-best of Qualified Quarterbacks. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed a completion rate of 71.1% this season — 5th-worst among FBS defenses.
Gunnar Helm (TEX) has gained 20 or more yards on 45.5% of 11 receptions this season — best of Qualified Tight Ends. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 20+ yards on just 11.1% of receptions this season — 28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s QBs has thrown for 1,074 passing yards in 4 games (268.5 YPG) this season — 35th-best among FBS teams. Texas’s defense has allowed just 116.0 passing yards per game this season — 8th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State have 268.5 receiving yards per game this season — 34th-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 116.0 receiving yards per game this season — 8th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s QBs has rushed for 38 yards on 40 carries (just 1.0 YPC) this season — T-27th-worst among FBS teams. Texas’s defense have allowed just 3.2 YPC this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State TEs have just one touchdown on 30 receptions since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 8.8
Mississippi State’s QBs has thrown for 1,074 passing yards in 4 games (268.5 YPG) this season — 35th-best among FBS teams. Texas’s defense has allowed just 116.0 passing yards per game this season — 8th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State RBs have fumbled 4 times this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Mississippi State have 268.5 receiving yards per game this season — 34th-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 116.0 receiving yards per game this season — 8th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State TEs have no touchdowns on 15 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 8.5
Texas Offensive Stats & Trends
Texas WRs have caught 10 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams
Texas Skill Players have 21 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams
Texas Skill Players have 21 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among SEC Teams
Texas Skill Players had 127 receiving yards on 3rd down last week– most among SEC Teams
Texas WRs have caught 10 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 5 of 8 carries (62%) on 3rd and long this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 15%
Mississippi State has one interception and 7 TD passes allowed this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 1.0
Mississippi State allowed a Completion Pct of 93% (26 completions/28 attempts) last week– worst in the SEC; Average: 59%
Mississippi State allowed opponents to catch 26 of 28 passes (93% Reception Pct) last week– worst in the SEC; Average: 60%
Mississippi State has allowed 225.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 111.8
Texas Longhorns Defensive Stats & Trends
Texas allowed no passing TDs (25 pass attempts) last week– T-best in the SEC; Average: 23.3
Texas has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 75 carries (10.7 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 4.7
Texas has not forced a fumble (119 carries) this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 41.4
Texas has forced 6 fumbles on 516 carries (86.0 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 40.3
Texas has allowed just 6.9 yards per completion (464 yards/67 completions) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 11.4
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