Nebraska vs Michigan Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:50 PM
  • Michigan (9-0) are -30.5 point favorites vs Nebraska (3-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points

The Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-8) visit Michigan Stadium to take on the Michigan Wolverines (11-0) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Ann Arbor.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Nebraska vs. Michigan is total points.

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Nebraska vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Nebraska
Michigan

Nebraska vs Michigan Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Michigan will win this game with 74.1% confidence.

Nebraska vs Michigan Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan will cover the spread with 65.2% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Nebraska and Michigan, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Nebraska Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Nebraska players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Casey Thompson has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Casey Thompson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Trey Palmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.60 Units / 22% ROI)

Best Michigan Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Michigan players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cornelius Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Blake Corum has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • J.J. McCarthy has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • J.J. McCarthy has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.15 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Ronnie Bell has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Blake Corum has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.85 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Nebraska has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+7.70 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Nebraska has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Nebraska has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Nebraska has hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Nebraska have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 18 games (+14.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+9.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Michigan have covered the Spread in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.40 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Michigan has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+7.87 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Michigan has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)

Nebraska Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nebraska has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Nebraska is 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.4 Units / -81.73% ROI
  • Nebraska is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Nebraska is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI

Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Michigan is 5-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 10.25% ROI
  • Michigan is 2-6 when betting the Over for -4.6 Units / -46.46% ROI
  • Michigan is 6-2 when betting the Under for +3.8 Units / 38.38% ROI

Nebraska: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan

Nebraska is 1-12 (.077) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times — tied for 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .417

Nebraska is 2-13 (.133) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times — tied for 10th-worst in FBS; Average: .420

Nebraska is 1-12 (.071) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities — 6th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .364

Nebraska is 1-8 (.111) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties — 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .522

Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Nebraska

#4 Michigan is undefeated (18-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays — best in FBS; Average: .511

#4 Michigan is 12-1 (.923) when sacking the QB less than 3 times — best in FBS; Average: .378

#4 Michigan is undefeated (16-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — best in FBS; Average: .513

#4 Michigan is 20-1 (.952) when rushing for more than 100 yards — best in FBS; Average: .537

Matchup Notes for Nebraska vs. Michigan

Michigan’s offense has 27 rushing touchdowns this season — second-most among FBS offenses. Nebraska’s defense has allowed 16 rushing TDs this season — most among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan’s RBs has 43 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — most among FBS RBs. Nebraska’s defense has allowed 28 rushing TDs since the 2021 season — fifth-most among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan’s RBs has 55 rushing touchdowns since the 2021 season — most among FBS RBs. Nebraska’s defense has allowed 28 rushing TDs since the 2021 season — fifth-most among Big Ten defenses.

Nebraska has gained 5,037 yards on 353 receptions (14.3 YPR) since the 2021 season — second-best among Power 5 skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among Big Ten defenses.

Nebraska’s QBs has 21 rushing touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-most among FBS teams. Michigan’s defense has allowed 14 rushing TDs since the 2021 season — tied for third-fewest among FBS defenses.

Nebraska’s QBs has 19 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — second-most among FBS teams. Michigan’s defense has allowed 14 rushing TDs since the 2021 season — tied for third-fewest among FBS defenses.

Nebraska Offensive Stats & Trends

Nebraska has gained 5,037 yards on 353 receptions (14.3 YPR) since the 2021 season — second-best among Power 5 skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fourth-best among Big Ten defenses.

Nebraska WRs have 20 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for most among Power 5 Teams

Nebraska WRs have 16 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since last season– most among Power 5 Teams

Nebraska WRs have 16 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations since last season– 4th most among FBS Teams

Nebraska Skill Players have averaged 14.3 yards per reception (5,037 yards/353 catches) since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.2

Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

#3 Michigan RBs have averaged 14.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (391 yards / 27 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.3

#3 Michigan RBs have rushed for 7 TDs in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

#3 Michigan RBs have averaged 216.0 rushing yards per game (1,728/8) this season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 130.5

#3 Michigan RBs have rushed for 16 TDs in the 4th quarter since last season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

#3 Michigan TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in close and late situations since last season– tied for 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

Nebraska Cornhuskers Defensive Stats & Trends

Nebraska has no interceptions and 16 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.2

Nebraska has no interceptions and 16 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 9.3

Nebraska has no interceptions (63 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 41.7

Nebraska has allowed just 11.1 yards per completion (4,889 yards/441 completions) since last season– tied for 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.4

Nebraska has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 5 of 115 attempts (4%) on 3rd and long since last season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 10%

Michigan Wolverines Defensive Stats & Trends

#3 Michigan opponents has averaged 48.8 Passing Attempts per TD (244 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) this season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 20.7

#3 Michigan has allowed 14 rushing TDs on 701 carries (50.1 Carries Per TD) since last season– 3rd best in FBS; Average: 24.1

#3 Michigan has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 217 carries (72.3 Carries Per TD) this season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 24.1

#3 Michigan has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 217 carries (72.3 Carries Per TD) this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 25.1

#3 Michigan has allowed 9 rushing TDs on 70 carries (7.8 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since last season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.