- Fresno St is a -19.5 point favorite vs. New Mexico State
- New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Total(Over/Under): 48.5 points
- TV Channel: truTV
The New Mexico State Aggies (1-1) visit Valley Children’s Stadium to take on the Fresno State Bulldogs (1-1) on Sep. 14 in Fresno, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EDT.
Fresno St is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -19.5 (-110).
The New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Over/Under is 48.5 total points.
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New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| New Mexico State | +19.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +800 |
| Fresno State | -19.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -1400 |
New Mexico State vs Fresno State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Fresno State will win this game with 92.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both New Mexico State and Fresno St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
New Mexico State vs Fresno State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Fresno State will cover the spread with 58.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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New Mexico State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
New Mexico State is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.15 Units / -6.67% ROI).
- New Mexico State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- New Mexico State is 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -50% ROI
- New Mexico State is 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 45.45% ROI
Fresno State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Fresno St is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Fresno State is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Fresno State is 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Fresno State is 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
New Mexico State: Keys to the Game vs. Fresno State
New Mexico State is 6-2 (.667) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .494
New Mexico State is 9-2 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .566
New Mexico State is 8-3 (.667) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .525
New Mexico State is 8-2 (.667) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .497
Fresno State: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico State
Fresno State is 3-1 (.750) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season– T-28th-best in FBS; Average: .585
Fresno State is 6-1 (.667) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .494
Fresno State is 5-2 (.556) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .427
Fresno State is undefeated (6-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-14th-best in FBS; Average: .524
Matchup Notes for New Mexico State vs. Fresno State
Fresno State’s offense has thrown for 593 passing yards in 2 games (296.5 YPG) this season — T-29th-best among FBS offenses. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 275.5 passing yards per game this season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Fresno State’s QBs has thrown for 593 passing yards in 2 games (296.5 YPG) this season — T-29th-best among FBS teams. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 275.5 passing yards per game this season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Fresno State have 294.5 receiving yards per game this season — T-29th-best among FBS skill players. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 275.5 receiving yards per game this season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State Offensive Stats & Trends
New Mexico State WRs have no touchdowns on 11 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.3
New Mexico State Skill Players have caught just 16 of 40 passes (40% Reception Pct) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 65%
New Mexico State Skill Players have averaged 17.1 yards per reception (2,291 yards/134 catches) on 1st down since the 2022 season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.5
New Mexico State RBs have averaged 6.6 Yards per Carry (604 yards/92 carries) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-7th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0
New Mexico State Skill Players have averaged just 8.0 receptions per game (16/2) this season– T-4th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.1
Fresno State Offensive Stats & Trends
Fresno State’s offense has thrown for 593 passing yards in 2 games (296.5 YPG) this season — T-29th-best among FBS offenses. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 275.5 passing yards per game this season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Fresno State QBs have averaged just -4.8 Yards per Carry (-115 yards/24 carries) in the 1st half since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 3.1
Fresno State RBs have 12 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams
Fresno State RBs have averaged just 2.7 Yards per Carry (141 yards/53 carries) this season– T-5th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3
Fresno State’s QBs has thrown for 593 passing yards in 2 games (296.5 YPG) this season — T-29th-best among FBS teams. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 275.5 passing yards per game this season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State Aggies Defensive Stats & Trends
New Mexico State opponents has averaged 6.6 Passing Attempts per TD (59 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 9th-best in FBS; Average: 3.9
New Mexico State has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 34 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 12%.
New Mexico State has intercepted 8 of 552 attempts (69.0 pass attempts per int.) since the 2023 season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: 36.5
New Mexico State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 5 of 56 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) this season– 10th-worst in FBS; Average: 17%.
New Mexico State has allowed 67 receptions for 20+ yards since the 2023 season– 3rd-most in FBS
Fresno State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends
Fresno State has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 60 rushes this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.4
Fresno State has sacked opposing QBs just once on 77 pass attempts this season– 9th-worst in FBS; Average: 14.4
Fresno State has allowed 6 TD passes this season– T-most in FBS
Fresno State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 55% (263 completions/476 attempts) since the 2023 season– 9th-best in FBS; Average: 61%
Fresno State has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 39 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 12%.
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