Ohio vs Toledo Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 19, 2024, 1:16 PM

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Toledo running back Jacquez Stuart carries the ball during an NCAA college football game against Illinois Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023, in Champaign, Ill. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

Toledo is a -1.5 point favorite vs. Ohio
Ohio vs. Toledo Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN2

The Ohio Bobcats (7-3) visit Glass Bowl to take on the Toledo Rockets (7-3) on Nov. 20 in Toledo, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST.

Toledo is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Ohio vs. Toledo Over/Under is 45.5 total points.

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Ohio vs. Toledo Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Ohio	+1.5 -110	45.5 -110	+100
Toledo	-1.5 -110	45.5 -110	-120

Ohio vs Toledo Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 57.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Ohio and Toledo, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Ohio vs Toledo Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Toledo will cover the spread with 58.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Ohio Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Ohio has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Ohio has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.05 Units / 14% ROI)
Ohio has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Ohio has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.70 Units / 28% ROI)
Ohio have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.55 Units / 26% ROI)

Toledo Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 50% ROI)
Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.60 Units / 18% ROI)
Toledo has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Toledo has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+1.30 Units / 1% ROI)
Toledo has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+0.75 Units / 1% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Ohio players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Ohio Player Prop Bets Today

Chase Hendricks has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Anthony Tyus III has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Coleman Owen has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Parker Navarro has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Rodney Harris II has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Toledo players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Toledo Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jerjuan Newton has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Junior Vandeross III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Ohio Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ohio is 6-4 against the spread this college football season (+1.6 Units / 14.48% ROI).

Ohio is 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 11.11% ROI
Ohio is 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
Ohio is 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Toledo is 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Toledo is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.3 Units / 2.52% ROI
Toledo is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
Toledo is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

Ohio: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo

Ohio is 14-2 (.875) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .553

Ohio is 16-3 (.842) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .584

Ohio is 16-3 (.842) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 16th-best in FBS; Average: .633

Ohio is 14-2 (.875) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 9th-best in FBS; Average: .605

Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio

Toledo is 13-6 (.684) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .401

Toledo is 9-1 (.900) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .553

Toledo is 10-3 (.769) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– 6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .523

Toledo is 16-2 (.889) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .566

Matchup Notes for Ohio vs. Toledo

Toledo has 2.3 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-16th-best among FBS skill players. Ohio’s defense has allowed just 1.1 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s RBs has 1 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-19th-worst among FBS RBs. Ohio’s defense has allowed just 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s offense has averaged 2.3 passing TDs per game this season — T-17th-best among FBS offenses. Ohio’s defense has allowed just 1.1 passing TDs per game this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Ohio’s RBs has gained 86 yards on 16 receptions (just 5.4 YPR) this season — T-10th-worst among FBS RBs. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

Ohio’s RBs has averaged just 5.4 yards after the catch this season — T-9th-worst among FBS RBs. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Ohio has 157 receptions in 10 games (just 15.7 per game) this season — 33rd-worst among FBS skill players. Toledo’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game this season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

Ohio Offensive Stats & Trends

Ohio Skill Players had no touchdowns on 22 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 13.4

Ohio’s RBs has averaged just 5.4 yards after the catch this season — T-9th-worst among FBS RBs. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Ohio QBs have rushed for 4 TDs in the 4th quarter this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends

Toledo Skill Players have fumbled 5 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Toledo RBs have averaged just 3.7 Yards per Carry (954 yards/255 carries) this season– T-3rd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Toledo RBs have fumbled 4 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Toledo RBs have averaged 3.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (278 yards / 77 touches) in the 4th quarter this season– T-3rd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5

Ohio Bobcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Ohio has tackled opponents for a loss on 156 of 685 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

Ohio tackled opponents for a loss on 93 of 364 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Ohio has allowed 45.2 yards from scrimmage per game in the 4th quarter this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 92.9

Ohio has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 20 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

Ohio tackled opponents for a loss on 93 of 364 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Toledo Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends

Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (424 completions/761 attempts) since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

Toledo opponents averaged 34.2 Passing Attempts per TD (411 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18.8

Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (424 completions/761 attempts) since the 2023 season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 61%

Toledo has allowed 10 rushing TDs on 371 carries (37.1 Carries Per TD) this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 20.6

Toledo opponents has averaged 31.7 Passing Attempts per TD (761 Pass Attempts/24 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.2