Oklahoma St vs Baylor Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 9

BetMGM Betting Oct 24, 2024, 4:11 PM

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Baylor head coach Dave Aranda yells from the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Albany in Waco, Texas, Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

(AP Photo/LM Otero)

The Baylor is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Oklahoma St
The Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Total (Over/Under): 64.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-4) visit McLane Stadium to take on the Baylor Bears (3-4) on Oct. 26 in Waco, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Baylor is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).

The Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Over/Under is 64.5 total points.

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Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Oklahoma State	+6.5 -105	64.5 -105	+195
Baylor	-6.5 -115	64.5 -115	-250

Oklahoma State vs Baylor Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 62.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Oklahoma St and Baylor, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Oklahoma State vs Baylor Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Baylor will cover the spread with 58.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Oklahoma State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Oklahoma State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 12 games (+2.55 Units / 19% ROI)
Oklahoma State has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+2.15 Units / 5% ROI)
Oklahoma State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Oklahoma State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.75 Units / 27% ROI)

Baylor Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Baylor has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 48% ROI)
Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.85 Units / 13% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Oklahoma State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Oklahoma State Player Prop Bets Today

Alan Bowman has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.25 Units / 125% ROI)
Rashod Owens has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Ollie Gordon II has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Alan Bowman has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
De’Zhaun Stribling has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Baylor players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Baylor Player Prop Best Bets Today

Josh Cameron has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Monaray Baldwin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Hal Presley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Oklahoma State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oklahoma St is 3-4 against the spread this college football season (-1.3 Units / -17.11% ROI).

Oklahoma State is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.5 Units / -6.88% ROI
Oklahoma State is 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
Oklahoma State is 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor is 4-3 against the spread this college football season (+0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI).

Baylor is 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -12.81% ROI
Baylor is 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
Baylor is 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Oklahoma State: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

Oklahoma State is 5-3 (.625) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 38th-best in FBS; Average: .505

Oklahoma State is 12-3 (.800) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-15th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .658

Oklahoma State is 12-3 (.800) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .642

Oklahoma State is 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .629

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Oklahoma State

Baylor is 3-13 (.188) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .594

Baylor is 1-7 (.125) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .532

Baylor is 1-7 (.125) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: .505

Baylor is 2-14 (.125) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .460

Matchup Notes for Oklahoma State vs. Baylor

Baylor’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.8% of 218 attempts this season — T-15th-best among FBS offenses. Oklahoma State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.6% of attempts this season — T-4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s TEs has gained 218 yards on 19 receptions (11.5 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big 12 TEs. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 14.3 Yards Per Reception this season — T-6th-worst among FBS defenses.

Baylor’s WRs has averaged 14.1 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 WRs. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 14.3 RAC since the 2023 season — worst among Big 12 defenses.

Oklahoma State’s WRs has 378 receptions in 21 games (18.0 per game) since the 2023 season — 11th-best among FBS WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 17.2 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Oklahoma State’s TEs has gained 85 yards on 12 receptions (just 7.1 YPR) this season — 2nd-worst among Big 12 TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 9.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma State Offensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma State Skill Players have 9 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among Big 12 Teams

Oklahoma State WRs have 9 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among Big 12 Teams

Oklahoma State WRs have 9 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends

Baylor has averaged 12.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 skill players. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 14.3 RAC since the 2023 season — worst among Big 12 defenses.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Defensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma State has allowed 94 receptions for 20+ yards since the 2023 season– most in the Big 12

Oklahoma State has allowed 1,665 rushing yards this season– most in the Big 12

Oklahoma State has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 19 of their 294 carries (7%) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 4%

Oklahoma State has allowed 1,665 rushing yards this season– most among Power Conference Teams

Oklahoma State has allowed 94 receptions for 20+ yards since the 2023 season– T-most in FBS

Baylor Bears Defensive Stats & Trends

Baylor has not recorded a sack (55 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

Baylor has not recorded a sack (55 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.9

Baylor has not recorded a sack (55 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15.7

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14.9