Penn State vs USC Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

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Southern California head coach Lincoln Riley watches during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Utah, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ryan Sun)

(AP Photo/Ryan Sun)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 08, 2024, 2:09 PM

The Penn State is a -5.5 point favorite vs. USC
The Penn State vs. USC Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
TV Channel: CBS

The Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0) visit United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to take on the USC Trojans (3-2) on Oct. 12 in Los Angeles, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Penn State is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Penn State vs. USC Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

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Penn State vs. USC Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Penn State	-5.5 -110	50.5 -110	-225
USC	+5.5 -110	50.5 -110	+180

Penn State vs USC Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 65.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Penn State and USC, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Penn State vs USC Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts USC will cover the spread with 70.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Penn State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Penn State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 20% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 11% ROI)
Penn State has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 7% ROI)
Penn State have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 44% ROI)
Penn State has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)

USC Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

USC has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.80 Units / 32% ROI)
USC has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.85 Units / 15% ROI)
USC has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
USC have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.55 Units / 9% ROI)
USC has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games at home (+0.35 Units / 3% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Penn State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Penn State Player Prop Bets Today

Drew Allar has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.45 Units / 61% ROI)
Drew Allar has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 84% ROI)
Nicholas Singleton has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 51% ROI)
Kaytron Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Tyler Warren has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 75% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for USC players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best USC Player Prop Best Bets Today

Zachariah Branch has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Lake McRee has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Miller Moss has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Miller Moss has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn State is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Penn State is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 17.02% ROI
Penn State is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
Penn State is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI

USC Against the Spread (ATS) Record

USC is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 44.94% ROI).

USC is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 16.58% ROI
USC is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -50% ROI
USC is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 45.45% ROI

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. USC

Penn State is 15-2 (.882) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-7th-best in FBS; Average: .593

Penn State is 8-2 (.800) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: .543

Penn State is 14-1 (.933) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .793

Penn State is 15-1 (.938) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .688

USC: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

USC is 10-3 (.714) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-39th-best in FBS; Average: .616

USC is undefeated (5-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .670

USC is 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– 9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .713

USC is undefeated (5-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .599

Matchup Notes for Penn State vs. USC

USC has 450 receptions in 18 games (25.0 per game) since the 2023 season — T-7th-best among FBS skill players. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 15.5 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.

USC’s WRs has averaged 13.7 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big Ten WRs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 10.8 RAC since the 2023 season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.

USC’s QBs has thrown for 1,464 passing yards in 5 games (292.8 YPG) this season — 20th-best among FBS teams. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 157.0 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Penn State has gained 1,220 yards on 81 receptions (15.1 YPR) this season — 9th-best among FBS skill players. USC’s defense has allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception this season — T-4th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Penn State’s WRs has gained 757 yards on 41 receptions (18.5 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten WRs. USC’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.8% of 114 attempts this season — 8th-best among FBS offenses. USC’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.7% of attempts this season — 7th-worst among FBS defenses.

Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends

Penn State WRs have averaged 41.5 yards per reception (83 yards/2 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 14.1

Penn State WRs have averaged 41.5 yards per reception (83 yards/2 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.3

Penn State Skill Players averaged 31.0 yards per reception (62 yards/2 catches) in the 4th quarter last week– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.4

Penn State TEs have been targeted 33 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among Big Ten Teams

USC Offensive Stats & Trends

USC has 450 receptions in 18 games (25.0 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big Ten skill players. Penn State’s defense has allowed 4.6 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-worst among FBS defenses.

USC’s offense has thrown for 1,464 passing yards in 5 games (292.8 YPG) this season — 20th-best among FBS offenses. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 157.0 passing yards per game this season — T-11th-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Stats & Trends

Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 13% of pass attempts (63/477) since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 13% of pass attempts (63/477) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 7%

Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 13% of pass attempts (63/477) since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Penn State has tackled opponents for a loss on 143 of 588 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 7%

USC Trojans Defensive Stats & Trends

USC has allowed 3.4 touchdowns per interception (34 TDs allowed, and 10 INT) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.5

USC has allowed 3.4 touchdowns per interception (34 TDs allowed, and 10 INT) since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

USC has allowed a Completion Pct of 93% (13 completions/14 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 60%

USC allowed 4.4 touchdowns per interception (31 TDs allowed, and 7 INT) in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.7

USC has sacked opposing QBs just once on 61 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.5

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