- Michigan State is a -13.5 point favorite vs. Purdue
- Purdue vs. Michigan State Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
- TV Channel: FOX
The Purdue Boilermakers (1-9) visit Spartan Stadium to take on the Michigan State Spartans (4-6) on Nov. 22 in East Lansing, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST.
Michigan State is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).
The Purdue vs. Michigan State Over/Under is 47.5 total points.
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Purdue vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Purdue | +13.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +400 |
| Michigan State | -13.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -550 |
Purdue vs Michigan State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Michigan State will win this game with 82.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Purdue and Michigan State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Purdue vs Michigan State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Purdue will cover the spread with 67.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Purdue Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Purdue has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Purdue has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Purdue has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.35 Units / 13% ROI)
Michigan State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Michigan State have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+2.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Purdue players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Purdue Player Prop Bets Today
- Devin Mockobee has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Max Klare has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Devin Mockobee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Jahmal Edrine has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Michigan State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Michigan State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Nick Marsh has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Montorie Foster Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Purdue Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Purdue is 2-8 against the spread this college football season (-6.8 Units / -61.82% ROI).
- Purdue is 0-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -100% ROI
- Purdue is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
- Purdue is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Michigan State is 4-6 against the spread this college football season (-2.6 Units / -23.74% ROI).
- Michigan State is 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -0.74% ROI
- Michigan State is 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Michigan State is 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
Purdue: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State
Purdue is 1-7 (.125) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .601
Purdue is 5-11 (.312) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .668
Purdue is 3-10 (.231) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .592
Purdue is 2-15 (.118) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: .413
Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. Purdue
Michigan State is 2-12 (.143) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .489
Michigan State is 1-10 (.091) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .501
Michigan State is 6-1 (.857) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: .505
Michigan State is 6-1 (.857) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .527
Matchup Notes for Purdue vs. Michigan State
Michigan State’s WRs has gained 1,674 yards on 117 receptions (14.3 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 7th-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan State’s WRs has gained 1,674 yards on 117 receptions (14.3 YPR) this season — T-33rd-best among FBS WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed 16.0 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan State has gained 2,296 yards on 183 receptions (12.5 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten skill players. Purdue’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-worst among P5 defenses.
Purdue’s TEs has gained 662 yards on 50 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — T-best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 13.0 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.
Purdue’s TEs has gained 662 yards on 50 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — T-best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 11.9 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Purdue’s TEs has 50 receptions in 10 games (5.0 per game) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed just 16.7 receptions per game this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.
Purdue Offensive Stats & Trends
Purdue’s TEs has gained 662 yards on 50 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — T-best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 13.0 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.
Purdue’s TEs has gained 662 yards on 50 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — T-best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 11.9 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Purdue’s TEs has 50 receptions in 10 games (5.0 per game) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed just 16.7 receptions per game this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.
Purdue RBs have fumbled 6 times in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams
Purdue’s TEs has 50 receptions in 10 games (5.0 per game) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed just 2.6 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends
Michigan State’s WRs has gained 1,674 yards on 117 receptions (14.3 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 7th-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan State’s WRs has gained 1,674 yards on 117 receptions (14.3 YPR) this season — T-33rd-best among FBS WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed 16.0 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan State TEs have no touchdowns on 41 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 17.4
Michigan State has gained 2,296 yards on 183 receptions (12.5 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten skill players. Purdue’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-worst among P5 defenses.
Michigan State TEs have no touchdowns on 41 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3
Purdue Boilermakers Defensive Stats & Trends
Purdue has allowed 14.2 yards per completion (5,422 yards/381 completions) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 11.0
Purdue has allowed 14.0 yards per completion (2,524 yards/180 completions) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 10.9
Purdue has allowed 4.8 touchdowns per interception (19 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) this season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6
Purdue has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 92 of 637 attempts (14%) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 9%
Purdue has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 39 of 269 attempts (14%) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 9%
Michigan State Spartans Defensive Stats & Trends
Michigan State has allowed 8 TD passes in close and late situations since the 2023 season– most in the Big Ten
Michigan State allowed passes of 40+ yards on 2 of 32 attempts (6%) last week– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 2%
Michigan State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 73 of 635 attempts (12%) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 9%
Michigan State has allowed 29 TD passes in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among Power Conference Teams
Michigan State has allowed 29 TD passes in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-most in FBS
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