Texas A&M vs Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

BetMGM Betting Sep 12, 2024, 11:24 AM

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Texas A&M linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (45) wraps up Florida running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (2) for a two-yard loss during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)

(AP Photo/Sam Craft)

Texas A&M is a -4.5 point favorite vs. Florida
Texas A&M vs. Florida Total(Over/Under): 46.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

The Texas A&M Aggies (1-1) visit Ben Hill Griffin Stadium to take on the Florida Gators (1-1) on Sep. 14 in Gainesville, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Texas A&M is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Texas A&M vs. Florida Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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Texas A&M vs. Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Texas A&M	-4.5 -110	46.5 -105	-200
Florida	+4.5 -110	46.5 -115	+165

Texas A&M vs Florida Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas A&M will win this game with 61.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas A&M and Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Texas A&M vs Florida Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida will cover the spread with 67.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Texas A&M Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Texas A&M has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+6.70 Units / 29% ROI)

Texas A&M has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.30 Units / 32% ROI)

Texas A&M have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 28% ROI)

Texas A&M has hit the Game Total Over in 2 of their last 3 away games (+0.90 Units / 27% ROI)

Texas A&M has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 2 of their last 3 away games (+0.85 Units / 25% ROI)

Florida Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Florida has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)

Florida has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+3.00 Units / 8% ROI)

Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.55 Units / 17% ROI)

Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 11 games (+0.85 Units / 7% ROI)

Florida have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.30 Units / 3% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Texas A&M players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas A&M Player Prop Bets Today

Le’Veon Moss has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Conner Weigman has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 68% ROI)

Jaylen Henderson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Amari Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Jaylen Henderson has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Florida players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Florida Player Prop Best Bets Today

Graham Mertz has hit the Passing Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 54% ROI)

Montrell Johnson Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Kahleil Jackson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Eugene Wilson III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)

Graham Mertz has hit the TD Passes Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 27% ROI)

Texas A&M Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas A&M is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.15 Units / -100% ROI).

Texas A&M is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.5 Units / -100% ROI
Texas A&M is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.44% ROI
Texas A&M is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.05 Units / -2.33% ROI

Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.44% ROI).

Florida is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
Florida is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Florida is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Texas A&M: Keys to the Game vs. Florida

Texas A&M is 1-5 (.167) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .431

Texas A&M is 1-6 (.143) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .406

Texas A&M is 2-9 (.182) when in a one score game since the 2022 season– T-3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .496

Texas A&M is 2-13 (.133) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2022 season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: .401

Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Texas A&M

Florida is 1-6 (.143) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .420

Florida is 3-9 (.231) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2022 season– T-39th-worst in FBS; Average: .339

Florida is 6-12 (.333) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– T-36th-worst in FBS; Average: .511

Florida is 4-11 (.267) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2022 season– 38th-worst in FBS; Average: .394

Matchup Notes for Texas A&M vs. Florida

Florida’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 17.0% of 53 attempts this season — 14th-best among FBS offenses. Texas A&M’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 2.0% of attempts this season — 4th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida has gained 588 yards on 33 receptions (17.8 YPR) this season — 10th-best among FBS skill players. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed just 8.9 Yards Per Reception this season — T-28th-best among FBS defenses.

Florida’s QBs has thrown for 588 passing yards in 2 games (294.0 YPG) this season — 33rd-best among FBS teams. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed just 128.5 passing yards per game this season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.

Texas A&M’s offense has thrown for 296 passing yards in 2 games (just 148.0 YPG) this season — 17th-worst among FBS offenses. Florida’s defense has allowed 264.5 passing yards per game this season — 22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas A&M’s QBs has thrown for 296 passing yards in 2 games (just 148.0 YPG) this season — 18th-worst among FBS teams. Florida’s defense has allowed 264.5 passing yards per game this season — 22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas A&M’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 3.6% of 55 attempts this season — 3rd-worst among FBS offenses. Florida’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 17.4% of attempts this season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas A&M Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas A&M Skill Players have caught just 41 of 86 passes (48% Reception Pct) in close and late situations since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 63%

Texas A&M Skill Players have caught just 49 of 101 passes (48% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 59%

Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida WRs have no receptions on 3 targets on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 67%

Florida’s offense has thrown for 588 passing yards in 2 games (294.0 YPG) this season — 33rd-best among FBS offenses. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed just 128.5 passing yards per game this season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.

Texas A&M Aggies Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas A&M has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 5 of their 72 carries (7%) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 1%

Texas A&M has tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 23 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 10%.

Texas A&M has not recorded a sack (51 pass attempts) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 12.4

Texas A&M has not recorded a sack (51 pass attempts) this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 14.4

Texas A&M has not recorded a sack (51 pass attempts) this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.1

Florida Gators Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida has allowed 5.2 touchdowns per interception (21 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 1.5

Florida has allowed 5.2 touchdowns per interception (21 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

Florida has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 21 of 394 attempts (5%) since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%

Florida has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 21 of 394 attempts (5%) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 2%

Florida has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 21 of 394 attempts (5%) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 2%