- The Toledo is a -9.5 point favorite vs. Buffalo U
- The Toledo vs. Buffalo Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPNU
The Toledo Rockets (4-1) visit UB Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bulls (3-2) on Oct. 12 in Buffalo, NY. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Toledo is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).
The Toledo vs. Buffalo Over/Under is 44.5 total points.
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Toledo vs. Buffalo Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Toledo | -9.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -350 |
| Buffalo | +9.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +270 |
Toledo vs Buffalo Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 75.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Toledo and Buffalo U, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Toledo vs Buffalo Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Toledo will cover the spread with 64.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Toledo Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Toledo has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Toledo have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Buffalo Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Buffalo has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 72% ROI)
- Buffalo have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 2 of their last 4 games at home (+0.90 Units / 21% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Toledo players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Toledo Player Prop Bets Today
- Jerjuan Newton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- Jacquez Stuart has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Junior Vandeross III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Buffalo players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Buffalo Player Prop Best Bets Today
- CJ Ogbonna has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Toledo is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI).
- Toledo is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 34.01% ROI
- Toledo is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 68.18% ROI
- Toledo is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -75% ROI
Buffalo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Buffalo U is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -3.64% ROI).
- Buffalo is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Buffalo is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.35 Units / -42.34% ROI
- Buffalo is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 34.86% ROI
Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Buffalo
Toledo is 8-2 (.800) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .512
Toledo is 9-2 (.818) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .457
Toledo is 7-3 (.700) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .383
Toledo is 13-3 (.812) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .588
Buffalo: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo
Buffalo is winless (0-5) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .443
Buffalo is winless (0-5) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .394
Buffalo is 2-11 (.154) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-10th-worst in FBS; Average: .423
Buffalo is 6-10 (.375) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 16th-worst in FBS; Average: .630
Matchup Notes for Toledo vs. Buffalo
Buffalo’s QBs has thrown for 665 passing yards in 5 games (just 133.0 YPG) this season — 7th-worst among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense has allowed 255.4 passing yards per game this season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo’s QBs has thrown for 2,861 passing yards in 17 games (just 168.3 YPG) since the 2023 season — 13th-worst among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 202.1 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 33rd-best among FBS defenses.
Buffalo’s offense has thrown for 665 passing yards in 5 games (just 133.0 YPG) this season — 7th-worst among FBS offenses. Toledo’s defense has allowed 255.4 passing yards per game this season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.
Toledo’s TEs has gained 716 yards on 48 receptions (14.9 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among FBS TEs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — best among NonP5 defenses.
Toledo’s TEs has gained 716 yards on 48 receptions (14.9 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among FBS TEs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2023 season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.1% of 528 attempts since the 2023 season — T-27th-best among FBS offenses. Buffalo’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.1% of attempts since the 2023 season — worst among NonP5 defenses.
Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends
Toledo’s TEs has gained 716 yards on 48 receptions (14.9 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among FBS TEs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — best among NonP5 defenses.
Toledo’s TEs has gained 716 yards on 48 receptions (14.9 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among FBS TEs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2023 season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.1% of 528 attempts since the 2023 season — T-27th-best among FBS offenses. Buffalo’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.1% of attempts since the 2023 season — worst among NonP5 defenses.
Toledo TEs have caught 5 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Toledo’s TEs has gained 716 yards on 48 receptions (14.9 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among FBS TEs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among FBS defenses.
Buffalo Offensive Stats & Trends
Buffalo’s QBs has thrown for 665 passing yards in 5 games (just 133.0 YPG) this season — 7th-worst among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense has allowed 255.4 passing yards per game this season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo’s QBs has thrown for 2,861 passing yards in 17 games (just 168.3 YPG) since the 2023 season — 13th-worst among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 202.1 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 33rd-best among FBS defenses.
Buffalo’s offense has thrown for 665 passing yards in 5 games (just 133.0 YPG) this season — 7th-worst among FBS offenses. Toledo’s defense has allowed 255.4 passing yards per game this season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.
Buffalo Skill Players have averaged just 12.0 receptions per game (60/5) this season– 8th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.9
Buffalo’s offense has thrown for 2,888 passing yards in 17 games (just 169.9 YPG) since the 2023 season — 13th-worst among FBS offenses. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 202.1 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 33rd-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends
Toledo has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 157 carries (52.3 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.6
Toledo has sacked opponents 8 times on 1st down this season– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Toledo has sacked opponents 19 times on 1st down since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Toledo allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (219 completions/411 attempts) in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (333 completions/595 attempts) since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Buffalo Bulls Defensive Stats & Trends
Buffalo has allowed just 9.1 yards per completion (1,038 yards/114 completions) this season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.0
Buffalo has allowed just 10.2 yards per completion (3,281 yards/321 completions) since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.1
Buffalo has allowed just 9.1 yards per completion (1,038 yards/114 completions) this season– T-6th-best in FBS; Average: 11.7
Buffalo has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 11 of 182 attempts (6%) this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%
Buffalo has tackled opponents for a loss on 37 of 195 rushing attempts (19% TFL%) this season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
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