- Mississippi St is a -11.5 point favorite vs. Toledo
- Toledo vs. Mississippi State Total(Over/Under): 59.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPNU
The Toledo Rockets (2-0) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-1) on Sep. 14 in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.
Mississippi St is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-110).
The Toledo vs. Mississippi State Over/Under is 59.5 total points.
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Toledo vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Toledo | +11.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +325 |
| Mississippi State | -11.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -400 |
Toledo vs Mississippi State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Mississippi State will win this game with 75.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Toledo and Mississippi St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Toledo vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Mississippi State will cover the spread with 73.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Toledo is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Toledo is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 9.85% ROI
- Toledo is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Toledo is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi St is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Mississippi State is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Mississippi State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Mississippi State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State
Toledo is 11-1 (.733) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .395
Toledo is 5-1 (.833) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .404
Toledo is 10-1 (.714) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .435
Toledo is 9-1 (.750) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .517
Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo
Mississippi State is winless (0-7) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .420
Mississippi State is 2-6 (.250) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-26th-worst in FBS; Average: .496
Mississippi State is 2-8 (.154) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .353
Mississippi State is 2-7 (.222) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .425
Matchup Notes for Toledo vs. Mississippi State
Toledo has gained 427 yards on 28 receptions (15.2 YPR) this season — 24th-best among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 7.4 Yards Per Reception this season — T-6th-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo has averaged 15.2 yards after the catch this season — T-19th-best among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 7.4 RAC this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo’s QBs has rushed for 50 yards on 8 carries (6.2 YPC) this season — T-11th-best among FBS teams. Mississippi State’s defense have allowed 5.0 YPC this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends
Toledo has gained 427 yards on 28 receptions (15.2 YPR) this season — 24th-best among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 7.4 Yards Per Reception this season — T-6th-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo RBs have rushed for 8 TDs in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Toledo TEs have averaged 16.3 yards per reception (637 yards/39 catches) since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2
Toledo has averaged 15.2 yards after the catch this season — T-19th-best among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 7.4 RAC this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo Skill Players have averaged just 16.2 receptions per game (260/16) since the 2023 season– T-32nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.9
Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State WRs have averaged just 11.4 yards per reception (5,351 yards/468 catches) since the 2022 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 14.0
Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 29.2 yards per reception (117 yards/4 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.1
Mississippi State WRs have averaged 34.0 yards per reception (102 yards/3 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 14.6
Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged just 9.7 yards per reception (2,700 yards/279 catches) on 1st down since the 2022 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 13.1
Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged just 10.0 yards per reception (6,452 yards/642 catches) since the 2022 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.6
Toledo Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends
Toledo opponents has averaged 28.9 Passing Attempts per TD (867 Pass Attempts/30 Passing TDs) since the 2022 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.0
Toledo opponents has averaged 34.3 Passing Attempts per TD (480 Pass Attempts/14 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.1
Toledo opponents has averaged 34.3 Passing Attempts per TD (480 Pass Attempts/14 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 9th-best in FBS; Average: 20.7
Toledo opponents averaged 34.2 Passing Attempts per TD (411 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18.8
Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (43 completions/99 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2023 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 57%
Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State has no interceptions (79 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 38.0
Mississippi State has no interceptions and 23 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.5
Mississippi State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 67 of 544 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 17%.
Mississippi State has no interceptions and 23 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 9.5
Mississippi State has allowed 241.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 92.3
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