- Western Kentucky is a -7.5 point favorite vs. Middle Tenn State
- Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee Total(Over/Under): 54.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-1) visit Johnny (Red) Floyd Stadium to take on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-1) on Sep. 14 in Murfreesboro, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.
Western Kentucky is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).
The Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee Over/Under is 54.5 total points.
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Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Western Kentucky | -7.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -300 |
| Middle Tennessee | +7.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +240 |
Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Western Kentucky will win this game with 70.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Western Kentucky and Middle Tenn State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Middle Tennessee will cover the spread with 62.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Middle Tenn State vs Western Kentucky and all games with BetMGM
Western Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Western Kentucky is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Western Kentucky is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Western Kentucky is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Western Kentucky is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Middle Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Middle Tenn State is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.15 Units / -100% ROI).
- Middle Tennessee is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Middle Tennessee is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Middle Tennessee is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Western Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Middle Tennessee
Western Kentucky is 7-3 (.538) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .395
Western Kentucky is 12-6 (.667) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season– 10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .416
Western Kentucky is 5-1 (.714) when not throwing an interception since the 2022 season– 9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .496
Western Kentucky is 5-1 (.714) when not throwing an interception since the 2022 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .594
Middle Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee is winless (0-10) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2022 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .358
Middle Tennessee is 1-4 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-20th-worst in FBS; Average: .496
Middle Tennessee is 2-7 (.222) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: .398
Middle Tennessee is 1-3 (.250) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-12th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .495
Matchup Notes for Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee’s RBs has 11 receptions in 2 games (5.5 per game) this season — T-12th-best among FBS RBs. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 11.5 receptions per game this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee has 46 receptions in 2 games (23.0 per game) this season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 11.5 receptions per game this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee has averaged just 8.0 yards after the catch this season — 4th-worst among FBS skill players. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed 14.9 RAC this season — 11th-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky has 48 receptions in 2 games (24.0 per game) this season — T-29th-best among FBS skill players. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 28.0 receptions per game this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky has averaged just 9.4 yards after the catch this season — T-19th-worst among FBS skill players. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 8.9 RAC this season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s RBs has rushed for 105 yards on 32 carries (just 3.3 YPC) this season — T-17th-worst among FBS RBs. Middle Tennessee’s defense have allowed 6.7 YPC to RBs this season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends
Western Kentucky Skill Players have just one touchdown on 48 receptions this season– 8th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.8
Western Kentucky WRs have been targeted 160 times with 4-6 yards to go since the 2022 season– most among FBS Teams
Western Kentucky WRs have been targeted 140 times in the 1st quarter since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams
Western Kentucky RBs have picked up first downs on 14 receptions on 3rd down since the 2023 season– T-most among FBS Teams
Western Kentucky Skill Players have been targeted 41.7 times per game (1,167/28) since the 2022 season– 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.8
Middle Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends
Middle Tennessee TEs have been targeted 7 times in the 4th quarter this season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams
Middle Tennessee TEs have been targeted 9 times on 3rd down this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Middle Tennessee Skill Players have just one touchdown on 46 receptions this season– T-9th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.8
Middle Tennessee TEs have no touchdowns on 11 receptions since the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.1
Middle Tennessee TEs have been targeted 5 times in close and late situations this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Defensive Stats & Trends
Western Kentucky has tackled opponents for a loss on just 10 of 87 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) this season– T-26th-worst in FBS; Average: 17%.
Western Kentucky has allowed first downs on 27% of rush attempts in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18%
Western Kentucky has allowed 262.0 rushing yards per game (524/2) this season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 132.1
Western Kentucky has allowed first downs on 27% of rush attempts in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– worst in FBS; Average: 17%
Western Kentucky has allowed a Completion Pct of just 47% (21 completions/45 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 29th-best in FBS; Average: 53%
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Defensive Stats & Trends
Middle Tennessee has allowed 35 first down receptions this season– T-3rd-most in FBS
Middle Tennessee has allowed 4 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Middle Tennessee has allowed 16 first down receptions on 1st down this season– T-2nd-most in FBS
Middle Tennessee has allowed 9 TDs in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-most in FBS
Middle Tennessee has allowed 35 first down receptions this season– T-2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
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