Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 22

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 22, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Blue Jays (50-43) are -120 favorites vs the Red Sox (48-45)
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman (6-7), 2.87 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi (4-2), 3.34 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The Toronto Blue Jays (-120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Friday, July 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Blue Jays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Blue Jays are 50-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 50-43 ATS.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Blue Jays-1.5 +135O 9 -105-120
Red Sox +1.5 -160U 9 -115+100

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s matchup with 71.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+14.75 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 36 away games (+11.80 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.45 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 36 away games (+10.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Bradley Zimmer has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+12.35 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+10.60 Units / 88% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Bobby Dalbec has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games at home (+9.95 Units / 16% ROI)

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Jarren Duran 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Christian Vazquez 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
J.D. Martinez 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Jarren Duran 0.5 -275 0.5 +185

Red Sox vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Jackie Bradley Jr. 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
Jarren Duran 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nathan Eovaldi 5.5 +115 5.5 -160
Gausman 5.5 -145 5.5 +105
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 36 of their last 51 games (+21.20 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 52 games (+16.80 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+0.95 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 73 games (+12.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 59 games (+10.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 64 games (+9.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 64 games (+8.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+7.95 Units / 25% ROI)

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 39-54 against the Run Line (-19.65 Units / -17.21% ROI).

  • 50-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.35 Units / -10.57% ROI
  • 49-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.45 Units / 1.43% ROI
  • 43-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.85 Units / -11.46% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 50-43 against the Run Line (+7.6 Units / 6.54% ROI).

  • 48-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -2.43% ROI
  • 41-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.3 Units / -5.18% ROI
  • 43-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -1.46% ROI

Opponents have a chase percentage of 42% (321/768) against Kevin Gausman this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 34% (156/453) against Kevin Gausman in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Kevin Gausman has a strike rate of 72% (432/596) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 57% of Kevin Gausman’s pitches (852/1,501) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Nathan Eovaldi has allowed a slugging percentage of .619 (52 Total Bases / 84 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .364 — first Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi has walked 3 of 191 batters (2%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi has a strike rate of 69% (2,810/4,068) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 99th Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi has a strike rate of 72% (483/670) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Blue Jays are 40-11 (.784) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

The Blue Jays are 5-31 (.139) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .116.

The Blue Jays are 38-1 (.974) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .884.

The Blue Jays are 41-2 (.953) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Red Sox are just 133-19 (.875) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Red Sox are just 2-34 (.056) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .116.

The Red Sox are just 38-7 (.844) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .884.

The Red Sox are just 1-35 (.028) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Blue Jays are batting .264 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .232.

Blue Jays hitters are slugging .668 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .575.

The Blue Jays are batting .264 since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Blue Jays hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .337 (927 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.

The Red Sox are batting .266 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 17 of 346 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (10 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 36% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 245 of 3,460 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 65% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 6.84 (96.0 IP) over the last 14 days (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.6 MPH (2,328 batted balls) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, Day-to-Day
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Connor Seabold (Red Sox): Forearm, D15
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
  • Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Groin, D10
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Joshua Winckowski (Red Sox): COVID-19, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Julian Merryweather (Blue Jays): Side, D60
  • Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
  • Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
  • Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
  • Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays): Neck, D15
  • Andrew Vasquez (Blue Jays): Ankle, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.