Paul Skenes Odds, Prop Bets, & Predictions for Today

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Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes heads to the bullpen to warm up for his major league debut before a baseball game against the Chicago Cubs in Pittsburgh, Saturday, May 11, 2024.
(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
Shane Jackson @Sjacksonmgm May 23, 2024, 9:54 AM

Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes will return to the mound at 12:35 p.m. ET on Thursday to face the San Francisco Giants.

Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest odds.

Paul Skenes Prop Bets vs. Giants

  • Over 7.5 strikeouts (+105)
  • Under 7.5 strikeouts (-140)
  • Over 4.5 hits allowed (-105)
  • Under 4.5 hits allowed (-135)
  • Over 1.5 earned runs allowed (-165)
  • Under 1.5 earned runs allowed (+120)
  • Over 16.5 outs (-130)
  • Under 16.5 outs (-110)
  • Over 1.5 walks (-125)
  • Under 1.5 walks (-105)

Paul Skenes Scouting Report

The Pirates picked Skenes with the No. 1 pick in last year’s draft after he flashed ace-level stuff with the LSU Tigers during a College World Series run in 2023.

At 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds, Skenes has an imposing presence on the mound before you even get into his arsenal. But it doesn’t hurt that his fastball consistently hits triple-digits, with an average of 99 mph and a peak of 102.

In addition to his overwhelming fastball, Skenes throws a slider as his go-to secondary pitch. He also has a changeup, an occasional curveball, and has recently added a splinker to his repertoire.

Skenes might only be 21, but he has some of the best stuff in baseball from Day 1.

Paul Skenes Stats

The Pirates have been careful with Skenes.

Skenes pitched only 6 2/3 innings last year before making seven starts at Triple-A this season.

He posted a 0.99 ERA with Indianapolis, allowing one home run across 27 1/3 innings. Skenes recorded 45 strikeouts this year and walked eight batters.

Paul Skenes 2024 Game Logs

DateOpponentInnings PitchedHitsRunsWalksStrikeouts
May 17Cubs600111
May 11Cubs46327

Paul Skenes Prediction vs. Giants

Prediction: Pirates F5 Run Line (-0.5)

This is the same argument I made for backing Jared Jones in yesterday’s MLB Picks Today column. The bet was cashed when the Pittsburgh Pirates raced out to a 5-1 lead over the San Francisco Giants within the first five innings.

Similar to Wednesday’s contest, there is a starting pitcher matchup worth betting on with the F5 market.

Skenes has been as good as advertised to start his MLB career, striking out the first seven batters he faced last time out. He didn’t allow a hit across six shutout innings against the Chicago Cubs in his most recent start.

Oddsmakers have adjusted to Skenes’ overwhelming stuff in most of his prop markets, but targeting the F5 odds can allow bettors to capitalize on Pittsburgh’s offense.

Left-hander Erik Miller will start as the opener for the Giants, carrying a 0-2 record with a 4.50 ERA into Thursday’s matchup.

More importantly, the Pirates prefer facing southpaws. They rank 11th in wRC+ (105) against left-handed pitchers compared to their 28th overall ranking (79) against right-handers.

The Pirates jumped out to an early lead against a lefty starter yesterday, and I expect them to do the same to provide run support for Skenes.

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About the Author

Shane Jackson

Read More @Sjacksonmgm

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.