- The Red Sox are -135 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Cubs / Red Sox TV Channel: ESPN
The Chicago Cubs (+115) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-135) on Sunday, April 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Cubs are 17-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 16-12 ATS.
Cubs vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Hayden Wesneski 2-0, 0.00 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 3-2, 1.64 ERA
Cubs vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -120 | +115 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +145 | U 9 +100 | -135 |
Cubs vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 away games (+20.10 Units / 223% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+11.65 Units / 83% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+9.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+8.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+8.30 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Connor Wong has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+17.50 Units / 194% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+15.95 Units / 57% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in his last 8 games (+13.75 Units / 172% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 22 games (+10.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 52% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games at home (+11.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 19-8 against the Run Line (+9.6 Units / 24.81% ROI).
- 17-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.05 Units / 23.96% ROI
- 13-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -7.58% ROI
- 14-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -0.5% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 16-12 against the Run Line (+1.6 Units / 3.88% ROI).
- 15-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 4.82% ROI
- 13-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -4.22% ROI
- 13-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.35 Units / -4.38% ROI
Red Sox vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Matt Mervis (CHC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Red Sox vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Mike Tauchman (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Red Sox vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Red Sox vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hayden Wesneski has allowed an OBP of just .050 (20 PA’s) this season — best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .313 — 100th Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has allowed an OPS of just .150 (20 PA’s) this season — best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .672 — 100th Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski has a strike rate of 76% (48/63) this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .050 (1-for-20) against Hayden Wesneski this season — best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Houck has not walked any of the 45 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (31/51) against Tanner Houck this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 34% (30/87) against Tanner Houck this season — 3rd best among in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% (49/91) against Tanner Houck this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 90th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Cubs are 38-20 (.655) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Cubs are 22-18 (.550) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Cubs are just 21-27 (.438) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 35-38 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Red Sox are just 1-84 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Red Sox are just 3-150 (.020) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox are just 20-32 (.385) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
The Red Sox are just 19-81 (.190) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .281 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Cubs hitters are slugging .459 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Cubs are batting just .195 with two outs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Cubs hitters are slugging .489 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .385.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .281 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .348 (1,546 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of 1.346 (180 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.065.
The Red Sox are batting .272 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .234 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 2.92 (117.0 IP) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
The Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH in the 2023 season (4,045 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 45% of their games since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 74 of 1,050 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.66 (253.1 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 1.77 (142.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.96.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 12 of 254 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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