- The Guardians are -135 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Miami Marlins (+115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-135) on Friday, April 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Marlins vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 10-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 7-12 ATS.
Marlins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 -105 | +115 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 -115 | -135 |
Marlins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 away games (+7.40 Units / 123% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+13.05 Units / 72% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 82% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games (+9.30 Units / 66% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+7.90 Units / 99% ROI)
Guardians vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Guardians vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
Guardians vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.55 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.60 Units / 9% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.75 Units / 12% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 7-12 against the Run Line (-8.1 Units / -31.09% ROI).
- 10-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 5.98% ROI
- 6-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.05 Units / -34.14% ROI
- 12-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.25 Units / 24.76% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 7-12 against the Run Line (-5.25 Units / -22.78% ROI).
- 10-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -6.71% ROI
- 9-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -4.76% ROI
- 9-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.85 Units / -4.09% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has not walked any of the 43 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to September 29th, 2022 — the longest active streak is 11.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 53% (16/30) against Braxton Garrett with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .366 (15-for-41) against Braxton Garrett this season — tied for 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .259 — sixth Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Plesac has allowed an OPS of 1.085 (112 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .719 — 0 Percentile.
Zach Plesac has allowed an OBP of .455 (112 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .317 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .400 (40-for-100) against Zach Plesac with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 64% of Zach Plesac’s breaking pitches (67/105) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Marlins are 10-0 (1.000) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Marlins are 6-86 (.065) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Marlins are 20-3 (.870) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Marlins are just 11-38 (.224) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Guardians are 20-61 (.247) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 21-40 (.344) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .197.
The Guardians are 14-64 (.179) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 23-22 (.511) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .348.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 859 strikeouts in 3,149 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have 983 strikeouts in 3,653 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the 2020 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Marlins are batting just .215 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .332 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 894 strikeouts in 5,117 PA’s (17%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,265 strikeouts in 6,911 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .345 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.23 (52.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Guardians pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 10 of 174 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 49 of 729 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 484 of 6,718 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Sam D. Hentges (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Okert (Marlins): Adductor, D15
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , Day-to-Day
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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