- The – (91-41) are + favorites vs the (91-41)
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Clevinger (5-5), 3.58 ERA
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot (2-0), 4.02 ERA
- Watch the game on ESPN
The San Diego Padres (+140) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-165) on Sunday, September 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08pm EDT in Los Angeles.
The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at + (+).
The Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 72-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 79-50 ATS.
Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | + + | O 9 -105 | +140 |
| Dodgers | + + | U 9 -115 | -165 |
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 59.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 29 away games (+22.75 Units / 54% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 40 of his last 51 away games (+20.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 49 away games (+17.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 51 away games (+15.20 Units / 19% ROI)
Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 69 games (+16.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+15.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 52 games at home (+14.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Julio Urias has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+13.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Singles Over in 53 of his last 81 games (+13.05 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 57 of their last 109 games (+9.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 21 away games (+4.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 23 away games (+4.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 away games (+2.65 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Dodgers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 76 of their last 128 games (+10.13 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+3.15 Units / 11% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 59-72 against the Run Line (-16.8 Units / -10.37% ROI).
- 72-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.4 Units / -4.32% ROI
- 62-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.5 Units / -5.95% ROI
- 65-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.65 Units / -2.5% ROI
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 79-50 against the Run Line (+25.9 Units / 16.7% ROI).
- 89-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.55 Units / 3.3% ROI
- 53-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -20 Units / -14.07% ROI
- 66-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.3 Units / 5.14% ROI
Michael Clevinger: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .258 (40-for-155) against Mike Clevinger in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .327 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .213 (13-for-61) against Mike Clevinger when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .333 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (37/109) against Mike Clevinger on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 93rd Percentile.
Mike Clevinger has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 3 double plays in 59 opportunities (5%) this season — tied for 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 11% — eighth Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot: Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Caleb Ferguson has not allowed a home run in any of the last 27.2 innings he’s appeared — Reynaldo Lopez has the longest active streak at 54.0.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 11% (4/35) against Caleb Ferguson — 6th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 12% (2/17) against Caleb Ferguson — 14th lowest among among 230 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — sixth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Padres are 39-32 (.549) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Padres are 24-9 (.727) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.
The Padres are 25-7 (.781) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Padres are just 2-46 (.042) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Dodgers are 81-17 (.827) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Dodgers are 45-24 (.652) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Dodgers are 45-17 (.726) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Dodgers are 66-4 (.943) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .231 at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .328 (2,824 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .364 at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters are slugging .450 against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .771 (3,413 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .694.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .788 (3,639 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .336 (8,052 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 71 of 1,196 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 460.0
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.76 (606.2 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Dodgers have have still managed to win 43% of the time since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.92 (1323.2 IP) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
The Dodgers have allowed 3.34 runs per game (501/150) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.49.
Dodgers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Victor González (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Anthony Gonsolin (Dodgers): Forearm, D15
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Yency Almonte (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
- Brusdar Graterol (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Back, Day-to-Day
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): ACL, D60
- Kevin Pillar (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Kahnle (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duffy (Dodgers): Hand, D60
- Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
- Brandon Drury (Padres): Head, Day-to-Day
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alfaro (Padres): Knee, D10
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
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