Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 04, 2022, 8:42 AM
  • The (91-41) are + favorites vs the (91-41)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Michael Clevinger (5-5), 3.58 ERA
  • Dodgers starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot (2-0), 4.02 ERA
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The San Diego Padres (+140) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-165) on Sunday, September 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08pm EDT in Los Angeles.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at + (+).

The Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 72-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 79-50 ATS.

Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+ +O 9 -105+140
Dodgers + +U 9 -115-165

Padres vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 59.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Dodgers vs Padres and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 29 away games (+22.75 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 40 of his last 51 away games (+20.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 49 away games (+17.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.35 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 51 away games (+15.20 Units / 19% ROI)

Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 69 games (+16.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Mookie Betts has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+15.15 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 52 games at home (+14.05 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Julio Urias has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+13.75 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Singles Over in 53 of his last 81 games (+13.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 57 of their last 109 games (+9.30 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 21 away games (+4.60 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 23 away games (+4.25 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 away games (+2.65 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 76 of their last 128 games (+10.13 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+3.15 Units / 11% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 59-72 against the Run Line (-16.8 Units / -10.37% ROI).

  • 72-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.4 Units / -4.32% ROI
  • 62-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.5 Units / -5.95% ROI
  • 65-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.65 Units / -2.5% ROI

Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 79-50 against the Run Line (+25.9 Units / 16.7% ROI).

  • 89-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.55 Units / 3.3% ROI
  • 53-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -20 Units / -14.07% ROI
  • 66-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.3 Units / 5.14% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .258 (40-for-155) against Mike Clevinger in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .327 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .213 (13-for-61) against Mike Clevinger when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .333 — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (37/109) against Mike Clevinger on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 93rd Percentile.

Mike Clevinger has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 3 double plays in 59 opportunities (5%) this season — tied for 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 11% — eighth Percentile.

Ryan Pepiot: Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Caleb Ferguson has not allowed a home run in any of the last 27.2 innings he’s appeared — Reynaldo Lopez has the longest active streak at 54.0.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 11% (4/35) against Caleb Ferguson — 6th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 12% (2/17) against Caleb Ferguson — 14th lowest among among 230 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — sixth Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers

The Padres are 39-32 (.549) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Padres are 24-9 (.727) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.

The Padres are 25-7 (.781) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

The Padres are just 2-46 (.042) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Dodgers are 81-17 (.827) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

The Dodgers are 45-24 (.652) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Dodgers are 45-17 (.726) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Dodgers are 66-4 (.943) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

The Padres are batting just .231 at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Padres hitters have an OBP of .328 (2,824 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .308.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .364 at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.

Dodgers hitters are slugging .450 against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .394.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .771 (3,413 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .694.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .788 (3,639 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .336 (8,052 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.

Padres pitchers have walked 71 of 1,196 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 460.0

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.76 (606.2 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Dodgers have have still managed to win 43% of the time since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.92 (1323.2 IP) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.

The Dodgers have allowed 3.34 runs per game (501/150) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.49.

Dodgers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Victor González (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Anthony Gonsolin (Dodgers): Forearm, D15
  • Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Yency Almonte (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
  • Brusdar Graterol (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
  • Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): ACL, D60
  • Kevin Pillar (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas Kahnle (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duffy (Dodgers): Hand, D60
  • Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
  • Brandon Drury (Padres): Head, Day-to-Day
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alfaro (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.