- The Royals are -135 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies vs Royals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Phillies / Royals TV Channel: WCAU | BSKC
The Philadelphia Phillies (+115) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-135) on Friday, August 23, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Phillies are 74-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 72-55 ATS.
Phillies vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker 3-4, 5.79 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 10-6, 3.35 ERA
Phillies vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +1.5 -190 | O 9 -105 | +115 |
| Royals | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -115 | -135 |
Phillies vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 39 games (+11.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 35 games (+11.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+11.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 30 of his last 40 games (+10.40 Units / 14% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+22.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 41 games (+17.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+15.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 40 games (+11.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+10.95 Units / 38% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 21 away games (+14.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 68 games (+10.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 63 of their last 112 games (+10.70 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 63 of their last 110 games (+6.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 77 games (+5.65 Units / 7% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 64 games at home (+12.49 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+11.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 64 games at home (+11.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 64 games at home (+11.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 44 games (+8.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 63-64 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -2.24% ROI).
- 74-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -1.69% ROI
- 58-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.8 Units / -9.14% ROI
- 64-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -0.07% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 72-55 against the Run Line (+8.79 Units / 5.14% ROI).
- 71-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +11 Units / 6.8% ROI
- 57-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.1 Units / -10.22% ROI
- 65-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 1.36% ROI
Royals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Royals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Freddy Fermin (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Royals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Royals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha (KC) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 177 of Taijuan Walker’s 845 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 23% (120/519) against Taijuan Walker this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 29% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (301/852) against Taijuan Walker on low breaking pitches since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 61% (2,359/3,862) since last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 64% — fifth Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has a strike rate of just 62% (623/1,011) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .176 (32-for-182) against Michael Wacha when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 93rd Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (885/1,845) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 40 of Michael Wacha’s 239 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 17%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Phillies are 17-11 (.607) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Phillies are 6-2 (.750) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Phillies are 26-23 (.531) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Phillies are just 3-11 (.214) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Royals are just 23-101 (.185) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
The Royals are just 42-44 (.488) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .626.
The Royals are just 126-52 (.708) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Royals are just 26-113 (.187) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .273 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Phillies hitters are slugging .450 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Phillies are batting .264 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .251.
Phillies hitters are slugging .444 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
Royals hitters have just 192 strikeouts in 1,090 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have just 862 strikeouts in 4,706 PA’s (18%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have drawn 68 walks in 1,090 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Royals have won 42% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers won only 14% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- MJ Melendez (Kansas City Royals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 60-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 60-Day IL
- Rodolfo Castro (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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