- The Phillies are -190 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Richard Hill
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+155) visit BayCare Ballpark to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-190) on Saturday, March 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Clearwater.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Pirates vs Phillies Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Pirates are 1-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 3-1 ATS.
Pirates vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -115 | O 11.5 -115 | +155 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -105 | U 11.5 -105 | -190 |
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 70.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Godoy has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Kevin Padlo has hit the RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bligh Madris has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.35 Units / 89% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+3.05 Units / 102% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+1.25 Units / 42% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 47 away games (+6.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 129 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+15.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 121 games (+14.08 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+10.93 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 3-2 against the Run Line (-0.2 Units / -2.72% ROI).
- 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -37.25% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.95 Units / 52.21% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.25 Units / -60.19% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 3-1 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 50.52% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 22.47% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 36.84% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -50% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown elevated pitches 52% of the time (481/930) when behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (499/1,137) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
19 of Rich Hill’s 66 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) were backdoor last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Rich Hill threw his curveball 47% of the time (938/1,990) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio was 8.0 (241/30) last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.7 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola walked 7 of 299 batters (2%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola had a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (582/836) last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .277 (28-for-101) against Aaron Nola on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — 91st Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 52-8 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Pirates are just 3-79 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 58-87 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 72-5 (.935) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .450 (6,270 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Phillies batted .266 against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .333 (4,323 PA’s) against LHP since the start of 2020 — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,439 of 14,594 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 242 of 2,817 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .248 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Phillies vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
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