Rays vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 04, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Rays are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Rays starting pitcher: Josh Fleming
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Chad Kuhl
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Tampa Bay Rays (-175) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+145) on Tuesday, April 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Rays vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Rays are 4-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 1-3 ATS.

Rays vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rays-1.5 -110O 9 +100-175
Nationals +1.5 -110U 9 -120+145

Rays vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 75.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Rays vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Francisco Mejia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Ji-Man Choi has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.75 Units / 138% ROI)
  • Christian Bethancour has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.30 Units / 110% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Yadiel Hernandez has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
  • Alex Call has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Israel Pineda has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.10 Units / 100% ROI)
  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Runs Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)

Nationals vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Manuel Margot 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Francisco Mejia 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Harold Ramirez 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Randy Arozarena 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Josh Lowe 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000

Nationals vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Manuel Margot 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Francisco Mejia 0.5 -175 0.5 +135
Harold Ramirez 1.5 +195 1.5 -250
Randy Arozarena 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Josh Lowe 0.5 -155 0.5 +115

Nationals vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Manuel Margot 0.5 +200 0.5 -275
Francisco Mejia 0.5 +195 0.5 -275
Harold Ramirez 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Randy Arozarena 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Josh Lowe 0.5 +230 0.5 -350

Nationals vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kuhl 3.5 -160 3.5 +120
Josh Fleming 2.5 -135 2.5 +105
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 81 of their last 168 games (+10.50 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 167 games (+5.43 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 168 games (+4.35 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 85 of their last 168 games (+0.45 Units / 0% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games at home (+6.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 40% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 4-0 against the Run Line (+4.15 Units / 97.65% ROI).

  • 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 48.48% ROI
  • 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -27.91% ROI
  • 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.8 Units / 17.78% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 1-3 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -48.78% ROI).

  • 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.45 Units / -36.25% ROI
  • 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -26.44% ROI
  • 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 20.22% ROI

Josh Fleming has an ERA of 7.93 (29.2 IP) on the road since the 2021 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 3.77 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .382 (50-for-131) against Josh Fleming with runners in scoring position since the 2021 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .242 — 0 Percentile.

Josh Fleming has a strikeout rate of just 3% (4 SO in 129 PAs) in PAs ending on fastballs away since the 2021 season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — 0 Percentile.

Josh Fleming has a strike rate of 72% (449/626) vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.

Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Chad Kuhl had an ERA of 7.88 (64.0 IP) against division opponents in 2022 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 3.93 — second Percentile.

Chad Kuhl has located his fastball up for a strike just 45% (350/778) of the time since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.

Chad Kuhl has an ERA of 7.35 (98.0 IP) against division opponents since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 3.98 — 0 Percentile.

Chad Kuhl has located his fastball up for a strike just 48% (299/619) of the time since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Rays are 10-105 (.087) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .046.

The Rays are just 147-16 (.902) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.

The Rays are 63-60 (.512) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2021 season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .418.

The Rays are 40-52 (.435) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .295.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Nationals are just 78-45 (.634) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Nationals are just 105-12 (.897) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.

The Nationals were just 17-32 (.347) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.

The Nationals are just 61-101 (.377) at home since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.

Rays hitters have grounded into 169 double plays in 2,206 opportunities (8%) since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Rays hitters have a groundball batting average of .261 since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.

Rays hitters put 39% of their swings in play against LHP in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Rays hitters have 358 strikeouts in 1,102 PA’s (33%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

The Nationals won only 32% of their home games in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters are slugging .233 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 301 double plays in 2,359 opportunities (13%) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Rays pitchers have walked 168 of 2,941 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 827 of 12,063 batters (7%) since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 995 of 14,275 batters (7%) since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays pitchers walked 75 of 1,443 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of .262 against Nationals pitchers with the shift in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.

Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in 2022 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Shawn Armstrong (Rays): Neck, D15
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D15
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Oblique, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.