- The Rays are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
- Rays starting pitcher: Josh Fleming
- Nationals starting pitcher: Chad Kuhl
- Watch the game on MASN
The Tampa Bay Rays (-175) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+145) on Tuesday, April 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Rays vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 4-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 1-3 ATS.
Rays vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 -110 | O 9 +100 | -175 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | U 9 -120 | +145 |
Rays vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 75.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Mejia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ji-Man Choi has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.75 Units / 138% ROI)
- Christian Bethancour has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.30 Units / 110% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Yadiel Hernandez has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)
- Israel Pineda has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.10 Units / 100% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Runs Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
Nationals vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Nationals vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Harold Ramirez | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -250 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
Nationals vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Nationals vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kuhl | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +120 |
| Josh Fleming | 2.5 -135 | 2.5 +105 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 81 of their last 168 games (+10.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 167 games (+5.43 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 168 games (+4.35 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 85 of their last 168 games (+0.45 Units / 0% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games at home (+6.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 40% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 4-0 against the Run Line (+4.15 Units / 97.65% ROI).
- 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 48.48% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -27.91% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.8 Units / 17.78% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 1-3 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -48.78% ROI).
- 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.45 Units / -36.25% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -26.44% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 20.22% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josh Fleming has an ERA of 7.93 (29.2 IP) on the road since the 2021 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 3.77 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .382 (50-for-131) against Josh Fleming with runners in scoring position since the 2021 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .242 — 0 Percentile.
Josh Fleming has a strikeout rate of just 3% (4 SO in 129 PAs) in PAs ending on fastballs away since the 2021 season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — 0 Percentile.
Josh Fleming has a strike rate of 72% (449/626) vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chad Kuhl had an ERA of 7.88 (64.0 IP) against division opponents in 2022 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 3.93 — second Percentile.
Chad Kuhl has located his fastball up for a strike just 45% (350/778) of the time since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Chad Kuhl has an ERA of 7.35 (98.0 IP) against division opponents since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 3.98 — 0 Percentile.
Chad Kuhl has located his fastball up for a strike just 48% (299/619) of the time since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Rays are 10-105 (.087) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Rays are just 147-16 (.902) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Rays are 63-60 (.512) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2021 season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Rays are 40-52 (.435) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Nationals are just 78-45 (.634) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Nationals are just 105-12 (.897) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Nationals were just 17-32 (.347) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 61-101 (.377) at home since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have grounded into 169 double plays in 2,206 opportunities (8%) since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Rays hitters have a groundball batting average of .261 since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Rays hitters put 39% of their swings in play against LHP in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Rays hitters have 358 strikeouts in 1,102 PA’s (33%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals won only 32% of their home games in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are slugging .233 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 301 double plays in 2,359 opportunities (13%) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 168 of 2,941 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 827 of 12,063 batters (7%) since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 995 of 14,275 batters (7%) since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers walked 75 of 1,443 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .262 against Nationals pitchers with the shift in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in 2022 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shawn Armstrong (Rays): Neck, D15
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D15
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Oblique, D15
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