- The Brewers are -160 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Boston Red Sox (+135) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-160) on Friday, April 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Red Sox vs Brewers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 10-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 13-6 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 +100 | +135 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +120 | U 8.5 -120 | -160 |
Red Sox vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in his last 7 games (+8.30 Units / 119% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+7.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Joey Wiemer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.05 Units / 43% ROI)
Brewers vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Brewers vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Brewers vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Brewers vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
| Freddy Peralta | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+12.30 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+4.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.25 Units / 41% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 10-10 against the Run Line (+0.05 Units / 0.21% ROI).
- 10-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -7.2% ROI
- 14-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.45 Units / 34.02% ROI
- 6-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.7 Units / -43.6% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 13-6 against the Run Line (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI).
- 14-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.9 Units / 49.66% ROI
- 9-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -10.82% ROI
- 10-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.15 Units / 0.73% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 6 double plays in 152 opportunities (4%) since last season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — fourth Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has walked 81 of 837 batters (10%) since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has walked 22 of 201 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 45% of the time (380/838) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .100 (46-for-461) against Freddy Peralta when ahead in the count since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: .189 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order are hitting just .154 (94-for-610) against Freddy Peralta since the 2020 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .094 (52-for-552) against Freddy Peralta with two-strikes since the 2020 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: .167 — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .236 (144 Total Bases / 610 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since the 2020 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: .388 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Red Sox are just 6-13 (.316) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 20-37 (.351) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Red Sox are just 7-72 (.089) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 159-22 (.878) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Brewers are 11-2 (.846) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Brewers are just 9-38 (.191) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Brewers are 14-4 (.778) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .540.
The Brewers are just 81-5 (.942) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .955.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .492 (63 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Red Sox are batting .407 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .360 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 47 strikeouts in 145 PA’s (32%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers hitters are slugging .520 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .318 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Brewers hitters have 487 strikeouts in 1,856 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (722.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 7.17 (59.0 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.17.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 23% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 35 of 495 batters (7%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Brewers pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gus Varland (Brewers): Hand, D15
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D10
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Corbin Burnes (Brewers): Pectoral, Day-to-Day
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Martin (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
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