- Red Sox / Nationals TV Channel: MASN
The Boston Red Sox (+130) visit CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches to take on the Washington Nationals (-155) on Wednesday, February 28, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in West Palm Beach, FL.
This season, the Red Sox are 1-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 2-2 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +130 |
| Nationals | -155 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.80 Units / 190% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.10 Units / 74% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.95 Units / 98% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.90 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.30 Units / 165% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Drew Millas has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 156 games (+2.30 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.15 Units / 21% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Red Sox are 2-1 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 27.4% ROI).
- 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -37.31% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 27.69% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Nationals are 2-2 against the Run Line (-1.35 Units / -22.13% ROI).
- 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 14.12% ROI
- 3-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 68.18% ROI
- 0-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -77.27% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josh Winckowski located 51% of his pitches inside (303/590) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 3rd highest among in AL; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.
Josh Winckowski had a strike rate of 66% (390/590) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 90th Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted .287 (56-for-195) against Josh Winckowski in the 2023 season — 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 10th Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order batted .344 against Josh Winckowski in the 2023 season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — third Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jackson Rutledge has limited playing time.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Red Sox were just 17-25 (.405) after a home loss in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Red Sox were 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Red Sox were just 1-72 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Nationals are just 21-36 (.368) after a home win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 39-64 (.379) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 63-43 (.594) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Nationals are just 37-72 (.339) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Red Sox hitters slugged .505 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters struck out just 809 times in 4,217 PA’s (19%) against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals batted just .293 in hitter’s counts in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .343.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .265 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Red Sox have won 43% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents had a swing rate of 49% against the Red Sox pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 208 times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th most in MLB.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents batted .273 against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Nationals vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Lower Leg, Out
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, Out
- Joey Meneses (Washington Nationals): Knee, Out
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Dominic Smith (Washington Nationals): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- David Hamilton (Boston Red Sox): Thumb, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, Out
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Dinelson Lamet (Boston Red Sox): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Connor Wong (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox): Toe, Out
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Lat, Out
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