- The Orioles are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Christopher Sale
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer
- Watch the game on MASN
The Boston Red Sox (+105) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-125) on Thursday, September 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 76-82 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 94-64 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -110 | +105 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -110 | -125 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 53.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.05 Units / 70% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games (+9.35 Units / 58% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+9.10 Units / 82% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.80 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Bradish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+13.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+10.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+10.50 Units / 75% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.40 Units / 35% ROI)
Orioles vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
Orioles vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -450 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dean Kremer | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
| Chris Sale | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +110 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 away games (+11.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 62 away games (+6.98 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 away games (+4.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.40 Units / 7% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 98 of their last 155 games (+37.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 87 of their last 145 games (+26.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 74 games (+9.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 76 games (+4.05 Units / 4% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 76-82 against the Run Line (-19.4 Units / -9.31% ROI).
- 76-82 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.45 Units / -7.34% ROI
- 81-71 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 1.67% ROI
- 71-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.7 Units / -10.73% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 94-64 against the Run Line (+25 Units / 12.19% ROI).
- 99-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +36.75 Units / 17.74% ROI
- 79-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.55 Units / 3.21% ROI
- 67-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.15 Units / -11.51% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 43% (84/195) against Chris Sale with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed an OPS of just .427 (40 PA’s) — 5th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .674 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 49% (158/320) against Chris Sale with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .139 (5-for-36) against Chris Sale — 6th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .232 — 94th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (35/98) against Dean Kremer with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Dean Kremer has located his pitches away 56% of the time (1,597/2,837) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 27% (138/507) against Dean Kremer this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% (79/208) against Dean Kremer in two-strike counts this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 10th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 3-136 (.022) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox are just 17-25 (.405) after a home loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .505.
The Red Sox are 22-19 (.537) after a win as underdogs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .438.
The Red Sox are 57-4 (.934) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 40-51 (.440) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Orioles are 33-19 (.635) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Orioles are 14-6 (.700) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 26-17 (.605) after a home win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters are slugging .270 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .334 (3,065 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .357 (712 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
The Red Sox are batting .299 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are 36-16 (.692) against the run line (28.5% ROI) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Orioles are 191-124 (.603) against the run line (12.3% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Orioles on 50% of their plate appearances this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.. *
The Orioles are batting .254 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 357 barreled balls since last season — 2nd most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,992 times since last season — 4th most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 59% of their games this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.05 (1091.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 195 of 2,859 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Orioles have won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Terrin Vavra (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Félix Bautista (Orioles): Arm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D60
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D60
- Luis Urías (Red Sox): Calf, D10
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Triston Casas (Red Sox): Shouder, D10
- Reese McGuire (Red Sox): Thumb, Day-to-Day
- Christopher Martin (Red Sox): Illness, D15
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