- The Guardians are -130 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Cincinnati Reds (+110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-130) on Wednesday, September 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Reds vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 81-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 79-79 ATS.
Reds vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -110 | +110 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -110 | -130 |
Reds vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 73.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 26 games (+11.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 48 games (+8.90 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+10.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 games at home (+10.00 Units / 167% ROI)
Guardians vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Guardians vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Guardians vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
| Andrew Abbott | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 63 away games (+26.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 94 of their last 157 games (+20.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 68 games (+16.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 61 away games (+14.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.48 Units / 32% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 83 of their last 142 games (+21.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 63 of their last 116 games (+8.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.49 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 61 games at home (+3.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 94-64 against the Run Line (+19.4 Units / 9.22% ROI).
- 81-77 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.6 Units / 7.24% ROI
- 77-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.9 Units / -6.26% ROI
- 80-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -2.53% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 79-79 against the Run Line (-3.65 Units / -1.83% ROI).
- 74-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.05 Units / -10.74% ROI
- 65-89 when betting on the total runs Over for -33.75 Units / -19.32% ROI
- 89-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.05 Units / 10.42% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 20% (20/100) against Andrew Abbott’s curve and slider this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (38/147) against Andrew Abbott on non-fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 22% (10/45) against Andrew Abbott on low breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (83/283) against Andrew Abbott this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 63% of the time (411/649) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 59% of the time (971/1,639) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 71% of the time (653/917) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 31 ABs ending on a two-strike fastball from Shane Bieber. — Tyler Holton has the longest active streak at 37.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Reds are just 39-45 (.464) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .636.
The Reds are just 22-10 (.688) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Reds are just 46-37 (.554) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds were just 14-24 (.368) when scoring in the first inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .664.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Guardians are 34-111 (.234) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Guardians are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 23-118 (.163) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Guardians are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,568 strikeouts in 8,704 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,233 strikeouts in 12,112 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,111 strikeouts in 5,949 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .295 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 139 of 1,410 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.43 (1117.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Guardians pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 33 of 245 batters (14%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Logan Allen (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Bibee (Guardians): Hip, D60
- Gabriel Arias (Guardians): Wrist, D10
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew McLain (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Toe, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Harrison Bader (Reds): Groin, D10
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
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