- The Pirates are -175 favorites vs the Rockies
- Rockies starting pitcher: Kyle Freeland
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Colorado Rockies (+145) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-175) on Monday, May 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Rockies vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rockies are 14-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 20-15 ATS.
Rockies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rockies | +1.5 -140 | O 8.5 -115 | +145 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +115 | U 8.5 -105 | -175 |
Rockies vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rockies and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rockies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elias Diaz has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.10 Units / 58% ROI)
- Elias Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+7.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Kris Bryant has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- C.J. Cron has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- Kris Bryant has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+7.45 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 69% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Pirates vs Rockies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Elias Diaz | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Pirates vs Rockies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Elias Diaz | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Pirates vs Rockies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Elias Diaz | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Pirates vs Rockies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
| Kyle Freeland | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -165 |
Rockies Best Bets Today:
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+8.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.30 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.15 Units / 42% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 32 games (+9.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.10 Units / 93% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rockies have gone 16-19 against the Run Line (-4.8 Units / -11.93% ROI).
- 14-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -5.07% ROI
- 15-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -18.93% ROI
- 20-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.9 Units / 10.33% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 20-15 against the Run Line (+2.65 Units / 5.83% ROI).
- 20-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.75 Units / 22.38% ROI
- 17-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -1.17% ROI
- 16-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.4 Units / -6.23% ROI
Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 12% (5/43) against Kyle Freeland on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (47/265) against Kyle Freeland this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.
27 of Kyle Freeland’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in 2022 — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Freeland has allowed a slugging percentage of .581 (104 Total Bases / 179 ABs) on changeups since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: .385 — first Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has a strikeout rate of 39% (14 SO in 36 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 93rd Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 52% (27/52) against Mitch Keller this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 85th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 20% (9/44) against Mitch Keller on fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 12% (2/16) against Mitch Keller on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 38% — 98th Percentile.
Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Rockies are just 41-36 (.532) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Rockies are just 1-11 (.083) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Rockies are just 15-31 (.326) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rockies are just 60-120 (.333) on the road since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .466.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies
The Pirates are 13-0 (1.000) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .696.
The Pirates are just 4-92 (.042) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .090.
The Pirates are 18-1 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .885.
The Pirates are 13-2 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
Rockies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rockies have an average HR distance of 412.0 feet since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 398.2.
The Rockies are batting .284 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rockies hitters have an OBP of .346 (3,712 PA’s) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Rockies are batting .282 at home since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .371 against RHP since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .317 in righty-righty matchups since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
The Pirates are batting just .149 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .292 (2,240 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Rockies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Rockies pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rockies pitchers have walked 36 of 303 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Rockies pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 709 of 7,566 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,315 of 13,706 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates vs. Rockies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Chase De Jong (Pirates): Knee, D15
- Robert Zastryzny (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Rolison (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Bouchard (Rockies): Biceps, D60
- Noah Davis (Rockies): Elbow, D15
- Germán Márquez (Rockies): Elbow, D15
- Brendan Rodgers (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
- Dinelson Lamet (Rockies): Back, D15
- Tyler Kinley (Rockies): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Gilbreath (Rockies): Elbow, D60
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