Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani earned the leadoff role during an MVP campaign last season. He turned that into an MLB-leading 134 runs scored.
Ohtani begins as the preseason MLB odds favorite to lead all batters in runs again in 2025, but he will likely lose some plate appearances while returning as a two-way player.
Could that open the door for other candidates in this market?
MLB Runs Leader Odds 2025
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Dodgers | +400 |
| Juan Soto | Mets | +650 |
| Aaron Judge | Yankees | +1100 |
| Corbin Carroll | Diamondbacks | +1100 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Royals | +1200 |
| Gunnar Henderson | Orioles | +1400 |
| Mookie Betts | Dodgers | +1400 |
| Elly De La Cruz | Reds | +1800 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Phillies | +2000 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Padres | +2200 |
| Francisco Lindor | Mets | +2200 |
| Kyle Tucker | Cubs | +2500 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | Braves | +2800 |
| Trea Turner | Phillies | +3000 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Blue Jays | +3500 |
Runs Leader Betting Favorite: Shohei Ohtani
Based on the latest MLB betting lines, Ohtani is a +400 favorite to lead the majors in runs scored during the 2025 season. That gives him an implied probability of 20% to repeat as MLB’s runs leader.
For comparison, Ohtani was +800 in this market last preseason. Ronald Acuña Jr. (+500), Mookie Betts (+550), and Juan Soto (+650) all had better odds than Ohtani did the previous spring.
While Ohtani will be the leadoff batter for the best offense in baseball this year, I’m skeptical of his chances at repeating as MLB’s runs leader while returning to the mound.
MLB Runs Leader Predictions for 2025
When making MLB runs leader predictions, targeting top-of-the-order hitters on elite offenses is the way to go.
In that case, Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (+1400) makes too much sense at his current price tag.
Henderson led the majors in runs scored in the first half of the season, scoring 78 before the break. He finished sixth with 118 runs in 2024.
ZiPS and OOPSY, projection systems at FanGraphs, have Henderson finishing in the top five this season. The Orioles will lean on their lineup to guide them to the playoffs for the third straight season. Henderson can set the tone as the team’s leadoff hitter.
I can make a similar argument for New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (+2200) in this betting market.
PECOTA projects the Mets to score 800 runs this season – trailing only the Dodgers (830) – after signing Juan Soto in the winter. Lindor could be the biggest beneficiary from the addition of Soto, especially as the Mets’ leadoff batter.
Lindor finished 10th in run scored (107) last year, which included a slower start to the season. Lindor ranks eighth in MLB, with 215 runs over the past two campaigns.
Most projection models favor Soto’s chances of being MLB’s runs leader (as does the betting market).
Still, Lindor is underrated if the Mets resemble last year’s New York Yankees when Soto (128) and Aaron Judge (122) finished in the top four in runs scored.
MLB Runs Leader Best Bets
- Gunnar Henderson (+1400)
- Francisco Lindor (+2200)
MLB Runs Leaders Year-by-Year
| Year | Player | Runs | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Shohei Ohtani | 134 | +800 |
| 2023 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | 149 | +1000 |
| 2022 | Aaron Judge | 133 | +2000 |
| 2021 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 123 | N/A |
| 2020 | Freddie Freeman | 51 | +2500 |
| 2019 | Mookie Betts | 135 | N/A |
| 2018 | Mookie Betts/Francisco Lindor | 129 | N/A |
| 2017 | Charlie Blackmon | 137 | N/A |
| 2016 | Mike Trout | 123 | N/A |
| 2015 | Josh Donaldson | 122 | N/A |
Who Led MLB in Runs During the 2024 Season?
Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani led MLB in runs scored with 134 during the 2024 season.
What is the Single-Season Record for Most Runs Scored by a Player?
Billy Hamilton holds MLB’s record for most runs scored in a single season, recording 198 runs in 1894. Babe Ruth’s 177 runs in 1921 is tied for second.
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