2025 MLB Stolen Base Leader Odds & Predictions

There is an art to stealing a base in Major League Baseball.

Sure, being fast is essential. However, players must get a good jump and take advantage of the right situations to get the best of their opponent in the base paths.

Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz demonstrated that better than most during the 2024 MLB season, leading the majors with 67 stolen bases. Shohei Ohtani came in second with 59.

De La Cruz begins as a significant MLB odds favorite to be the league’s stolen base leader again in 2025, but has that created value for some other candidates?

MLB Stolen Base Leader Odds 2025

Stolen Base Leader Betting Favorite: Elly De La Cruz

Based on the latest MLB betting lines, De La Cruz enters as a -130 favorite to lead the majors in stolen bases during the 2025 season. That gives him an implied probability of 54.55% to repeat as the best base stealer in baseball.

For comparison, De La Cruz was +600 to lead MLB in stolen bases last spring. Ronald Acuña Jr. was the +180 preseason favorite, followed by Esteury Ruiz and De La Cruz.

Stolen base leader odds have only been tracked since 2021, but De La Cruz’s -130 offering is the richest preseason price tag. Adalberto Mondesi had a -125 preseason value in 2021 before Starling Marte (+2500) led the majors in stolen bases.

In fact, Acuña is the only preseason favorite to lead MLB in stolen bases over the last four years. He accomplished the feat in 2023 as a +450 favorite.

MLB Stolen Base Leader Predictions for 2025

I have no interest in taking the minus odds on De La Cruz to repeat as the stolen base leader, despite projections giving him the edge entering the 2025 campaign.

ZiPS, a projection system at FanGraphs, has De La Cruz finishing with 54 stolen bases this year. That is two more than Tampa Bay Rays rookie Chandler Simpson, who is only projected to play in 114 games.

In case you might be unfamiliar with Simpson’s game, the promising rookie figures to be the fastest player in the sport as soon as he makes his big league debut. He stole 104 bases in the minors last year.

I’d rather take the 45/1 value on Simpson as an AL Rookie of the Year odds long shot, but he will likely lead the league in stolen bases at some point in his career. Perhaps it’s as early as this year, making his 18/1 price tag intriguing.

There is also a case for Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (+900) as the current fastest player in baseball. Witt was caught 12 times during a 31-theft season in 2024, suggesting he has room for improvement by timing his jump better.

That said, my favorite value prediction is on Victor Robles (+2500) after he revitalized his career with the Seattle Mariners last year. He swiped 30 bags in 77 games with the Mariners and ranked third in stolen bases from July 1 through the end of the regular season.

If Robles’ renaissance was real and he can hold onto the leadoff spot, the Mariners’ offense might need him to be an aggressive runner to help manufacture runs.

Robles is projected to finish in the top five in stolen bases this year by OOPSY, putting him firmly in this race if De La Cruz misses an extended stretch this year.

MLB Stolen Base Leader Best Bets

• Victor Robles (+2500)

MLB Stolen Base Leaders Year-by-Year

Who led MLB in Stolen Bases During the 2024 Season?

Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz led MLB in stolen bases with 67 during the 2024 season.

What is the Single-Season Record for Most Stolen Bases?

Hugh Nicol holds the single-season record for most stolen bases with 138 during the 1887 campaign. Rickey Henderson’s 130 stolen bases in 1982 is the best mark in the modern era.