- The Red Sox are -120 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Tigers / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | BSDT
The Detroit Tigers (+100) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-120) on Thursday, May 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Tigers are 27-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 25-31 ATS.
Tigers vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty 1-4, 3.90 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 2-3, 4.20 ERA
Tigers vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -225 | O 7 +100 | +100 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +165 | U 7 -120 | -120 |
Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Vierling has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+22.50 Units / 562% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+8.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jack Flaherty has hit the Strikeouts Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.20 Units / 71% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.15 Units / 101% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+17.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+13.05 Units / 93% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+11.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 28% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+10.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 away games (+4.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 away games (+3.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.15 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.15 Units / 53% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+11.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 56 games (+4.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.20 Units / 19% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 25-30 against the Run Line (-7.45 Units / -9.96% ROI).
- 27-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.3 Units / -5.21% ROI
- 29-20 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.95 Units / 12.24% ROI
- 20-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.3 Units / -21.34% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 25-31 against the Run Line (-11.15 Units / -14.56% ROI).
- 28-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -2.65% ROI
- 21-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.45 Units / -20.33% ROI
- 31-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.05 Units / 12.98% ROI
Red Sox vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Javier Baez (DET) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Red Sox vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Wenceel Perez (DET) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Red Sox vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Mark Canha (DET) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Gio Urshela (DET) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Flaherty (DET) | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -160 |
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 36% (159/446) against Jack Flaherty this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .500 (13-for-26) against Jack Flaherty on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .323 — second Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has walked 9 of 243 batters (4%) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 34% (61/177) against Jack Flaherty this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .692 (376 Total Bases / 543 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: .560 — second Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has a strikeout rate of 40% (34 SO in 85 PAs) in late innings since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .119 (13-for-109) against Nick Pivetta in late innings since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .174 (426 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 98th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Tigers are just 63-69 (.477) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Tigers are just 24-95 (.202) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Tigers are just 26-144 (.153) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Tigers are 67-25 (.728) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .637.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Red Sox are just 23-35 (.397) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Red Sox are 82-7 (.921) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Red Sox are just 3-164 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 23-94 (.197) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .652 (10,606 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .293 (10,606 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .287 (503 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .359 against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 157 strikeouts in 548 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Red Sox are batting .270 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have 525 strikeouts in 2,126 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Tigers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 147 of 2,049 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 289 of 3,364 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers won only 16% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 146 of 2,075 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 135 of 1,936 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.29 (500.1 IP) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.94.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 30 of 501 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
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