Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Nov. 27

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 27, 2022, 4:30 PM
  • The Hawks (11-8) are -5.5 favorites vs. the Heat (9-11)
  • Total (Over/Under): 222.5 points
  • Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 5:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSSE & BSSUN

The Miami Heat visit State Farm Arena to take on the Atlanta Hawks on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 5:00pm EST in Atlanta.

The Hawks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).

The Heat vs Hawks Over/Under is 225.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 6-13 against the spread, while the Hawks are 8-10 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Hawks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+3.5 -105O 225.5 -110+140
Atlanta Hawks -3.5 -115U 225.5 -110-165

Hawks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Hawks will win Sunday‘s game with 61.4% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Hawks will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Hawks, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 58 of their last 92 games (+20.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 48 games (+13.52 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 56 of their last 98 games (+13.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 58 of their last 99 games (+12.18 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 95 games (+11.75 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 35 games at home (+15.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 33 games (+13.81 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 51 games (+13.13 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have covered the Spread in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+8.85 Units / 19% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 6-13 (-8.3 Units / -37.73% ROI).

  • 9-11 against the Moneyline (-6.95 Units / -19.41% ROI)
  • 10-9 against the Over for game total points (+0.1 Units / 0.45% ROI)
  • 9-10 against the Under for game total points (-2 Units / -9.09% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Hawks have gone 8-10 (-3 Units / -14.35% ROI).

  • 11-8 against the Moneyline (-1.75 Units / -4.62% ROI)
  • 11-8 against the Over for game total points (+2.2 Units / 10.53% ROI)
  • 8-11 against the Under for game total points (-4.1 Units / -19.62% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 40 of their last 88 games (-24.27 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 86 games (-22.37 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 88 games (-20.13 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 53 games (-19.50 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 82 games (-17.55 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 43 of their last 99 games (-26.70 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 99 games (-23.37 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 40 of their last 100 games (-22.65 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 47 of their last 100 games (-21.03 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 50 games (-19.69 Units / -35% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Hawks

The Heat are 45-18 (.714) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564

The Heat are 16-12 (.571) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Heat are 29-3 (.906) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .744

The Heat are 13-8 (.619) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Atlanta Hawks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Hawks are 21-14 (.600) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .506

The Hawks are 17-4 (.810) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .606

The Hawks are 15-19 (.441) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .539

The Hawks are 50-26 (.658) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

Injury Report: Hawks vs. HeatSunday‘s Game, Nov. 27

  • Clint Capela (Hawks): Capela is QUESTIONABLE for Sunday’s (Nov. 27) game against Miami.
  • Bogdan Bogdanovic (Hawks): Bogdanovic has not played this season yet as he recovers from a knee injury and no timetable has been announced for his return to action.
  • Caleb Martin (Heat): Martin is QUESTIONABLE for Sunday’s (Nov. 27) game against Atlanta.
  • Jimmy Butler (Heat): Butler is OUT for Sunday’s (Nov. 26) game against Atlanta.
  • Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is QUESTIONABLE for Sunday’s (Nov. 27) game against Atlanta.
  • Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo has not played this season and is not believed to be closed to returning to action, according to Brian Windhorst of ESPN.
  • Max Strus (Heat): Strus is QUESTIONABLE for Sunday’s (Nov. 27) game against Atlanta.
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): The Heat announced that Yurtseven underwent surgery and will be re-evaluated at a later date.
  • Dewayne Dedmon (Heat): Dedmon is QUESTIONABLE for Sunday’s (Nov. 27) game against Atlanta.
  • Gabe Vincent (Heat): Vincent is QUESTIONABLE for Sunday’s (Nov. 27) game against Atlanta.
  • Duncan Robinson (Heat): Robinson is QUESTIONABLE for Sunday’s (Nov. 27) game against Atlanta.
  • Jamal Cain (Heat): Cain is PROBABLE for Sunday’s (Nov. 27) game against Atlanta.

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 41.0 points in the paint per game (1,802 points/44 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46.7

The Heat have averaged 45.5 points in the paint per game (592 points/13 games) this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0

The Heat are shooting 87% from the free throw line (260/300) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Heat have averaged 12.9 turnovers per game (168 turnovers/13 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

Atlanta Hawks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks are shooting 28% from three (49/178) in the first half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Hawks are shooting 29% from three (62/210) at home this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%

The Hawks have averaged 1.21 points per shot (1,497 points/1,235 shots) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.27

The Hawks have made 9.5 three-pointers per game this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.2

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (38 blocks/13 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (298 blocks/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (152 blocks/50 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (281 blocks/80 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Atlanta Hawks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks have averaged 34.6 defensive rebounds per game (450 rebounds/13 games) this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.3

The Hawks have averaged 7.0 steals per game (667 steals/95 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Hawks have averaged 7.0 steals per game (1,170 steals/167 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Hawks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (558 steals/83 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.