Mavericks vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 15

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 15, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets (40-18) are -5.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks (31-28)
  • Total (Over/Under): 231.5 points
  • Wednesday, February 15, 2023 at 9:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on ALT & BSSW

The Dallas Mavericks visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EST in Denver.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Mavericks vs Nuggets Over/Under is 233.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 21-35 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 31-26 against the spread.


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Mavericks vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dallas Mavericks+4.5 -110O 233.5 -115+150
Denver Nuggets -4.5 -110U 233.5 -115-185

Nuggets vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Wednesday‘s game with 62.0% confidence.

Nuggets vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 51.7% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Mavericks and Nuggets, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 62 of their last 100 games (+20.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 54 games (+12.00 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 85 games (+7.85 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 away games (+6.50 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games (+6.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 54 games (+22.07 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 24 games at home (+19.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 50 of their last 83 games (+12.79 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 29 games at home (+10.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+9.65 Units / 19% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 21-35 (-17.45 Units / -26.91% ROI).

  • 31-28 against the Moneyline (-14.5 Units / -11.97% ROI)
  • 33-26 against the Over for game total points (+4.4 Units / 6.78% ROI)
  • 26-33 against the Under for game total points (-10.3 Units / -15.87% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 31-26 (+2.4 Units / 3.76% ROI).

  • 40-18 against the Moneyline (+14.25 Units / 9.34% ROI)
  • 29-29 against the Over for game total points (-2.9 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 29-29 against the Under for game total points (-2.9 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 81 games (-31.62 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 83 games (-23.87 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 84 games (-23.80 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 42 of their last 84 games (-22.63 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 33 of their last 79 games (-18.17 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 100 games (-33.67 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 50 games (-26.24 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 39 of their last 95 games (-23.98 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 44 of their last 96 games (-22.85 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the Spread in 22 of their last 64 games (-20.85 Units / -30% ROI)

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Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Dallas Mavericks are 4-17 (.190) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for fifth-worst among NBA teams. The LA Clippers made 12.7 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 10th-highest among NBA teams.

The Mavericks are 27-13 (.675) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .537

The Mavericks are 31-20 (.608) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .463

The Mavericks are 34-19 (.642) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Denver Nuggets are 25-7 (.781) when winning the rebounding margin this season — sixth-best among NBA teams. The Minnesota Timberwolves have averaged 41.3 rebounds per game (2,313 rebounds/56 games) this season — tied for fourth-lowest among NBA teams.

The Denver Nuggets are 18-2 (.900) when they win the turnover margin this season — best among NBA teams. The Minnesota Timberwolves have averaged 15.2 turnovers per game (853 turnovers/56 games) this season — third-highest among NBA teams.

The Denver Nuggets are 38-7 (.844) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams. The Minnesota Timberwolves have averaged 14.3 turnovers per game (1,979 turnovers/138 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — third-highest among NBA teams.

The Nuggets are 42-8 (.840) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .600

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. MavericksWednesday‘s Game, Feb. 15

  • Aaron Gordon (Nuggets): Gordon is questionable for Wednesday’s (Feb 15) game against Dallas.
  • Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): Gillespie remains without a timetable to make his NBA debut, according to Katy Winge of Altitude Sports.
  • Zeke Nnaji (Nuggets): Nnaji is OUT for Wednesday’s (Feb 15) game against Dallas.
  • Jamal Murray (Nuggets): Murray is questionable for Wednesday’s (Jan 15) game against Dallas.
  • Maxi Kleber (Mavericks): Kleber hopes to return prior to the All-Star break, according to Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com.
  • Christian Wood (Mavericks): Wood is questionable for Wednesday’s (Feb 15) game against Denver.
  • Reggie Bullock (Mavericks): Bullock is questionable for Wednesday’s (Feb 15) game against Denver.
  • Davis Bertans (Mavericks): Bertans is OUT for Wednesday’s (Feb 15) game against Denver.
  • Tim Hardaway Jr. (Mavericks): Hardaway Jr. is questionable for Wednesday’s (Feb 15) game against Denver.

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 42.2 points in the paint per game (2,320 points/55 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.1

The Mavericks have averaged 11.6 turnovers per game (2,430 turnovers/209 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.3

The Mavericks have averaged 21.6 assists per game (605 assists/28 games) at home this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.4

The Mavericks have averaged 39.3 points in the paint per game (1,060 points/27 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.6

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (4,741/9,281) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 41% from three (98/242) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,086/6,021) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets have an eFG% of 59% in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 6.5 steals per game (1,364 steals/209 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Mavericks have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (846 blocks/209 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Mavericks have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (402 blocks/105 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Mavericks have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (535 blocks/137 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (867 blocks/208 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have averaged 4.4 blocks per game (239 blocks/54 games) this season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (278 blocks/70 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (418 blocks/102 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.