Nuggets vs Pistons Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 16

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 16, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Nuggets (46-23) are -12.5 favorites vs. the Pistons (16-54)
  • Total (Over/Under): 228.5 points
  • Thursday, March 16, 2023 at 7:00pm EDT
  • Watch the game on BSDET & ALT

The Denver Nuggets visit Little Caesars Arena to take on the Detroit Pistons on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Detroit.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-115).

The Nuggets vs Pistons Over/Under is 230.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 36-32 against the spread, while the Pistons are 30-37 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Pistons Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets-14.5 -115O 230.5 -110-1600
Detroit Pistons +14.5 -105U 230.5 -110+875

Pistons vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Thursday‘s game with 72.5% confidence.

Pistons vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 62.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Nuggets and Pistons, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 46 of their last 65 games (+24.57 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 62 games (+8.55 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 47 of their last 81 games (+8.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+8.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 53 of their last 81 games (+20.72 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 50 of their last 81 games (+15.58 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 77 games (+12.91 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 37 of their last 64 games (+9.70 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the 2Q Spread in 48 of their last 83 games (+9.20 Units / 10% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 36-32 (+0.8 Units / 1.05% ROI).

  • 46-23 against the Moneyline (+2.85 Units / 1.53% ROI)
  • 36-33 against the Over for game total points (-0.3 Units / -0.4% ROI)
  • 33-36 against the Under for game total points (-6.6 Units / -8.7% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pistons have gone 30-37 (-10.75 Units / -13.96% ROI).

  • 16-54 against the Moneyline (-20.6 Units / -28.08% ROI)
  • 35-35 against the Over for game total points (-3.5 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 35-35 against the Under for game total points (-3.5 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 83 games (-32.31 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 81 games (-25.23 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 82 games (-24.65 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 29 games (-23.10 Units / -76% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only covered the 1Q Spread in 33 of their last 83 games (-22.15 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 65 games (-32.56 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 87 games (-25.60 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 45 of their last 87 games (-20.24 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 87 games (-19.70 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 37 of their last 87 games (-18.49 Units / -19% ROI)

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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Pistons

The Nuggets are 45-16 (.738) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .541

The Nuggets are 29-9 (.763) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

The Nuggets are 16-5 (.762) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .531

The Nuggets are 13-9 (.591) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .468

Detroit Pistons: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Pistons are 23-83 (.217) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .454

The Pistons are 10-61 (.141) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .451

The Pistons are 5-25 (.167) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .457

The Pistons are 8-39 (.170) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .435

Injury Report: Pistons vs. NuggetsThursday‘s Game, Mar. 16

  • Isaiah Stewart (Pistons): The Pistons announced that Stewart has a left shoulder impingement and will re-evaluated in 3-4 weeks.
  • Jaden Ivey (Pistons): Ivey is probable for Thursday’s (Mar.16) game against Denver.
  • Cade Cunningham (Pistons): Cunningham had season-ending surgery on his shin. He plans on on being ready for next season, according to James Edwards III of The Athletic.
  • Alec Burks (Pistons): Burks is out for Thursday’s (Mar.16) game against Denver.
  • Isaiah Livers (Pistons): Livers is out for Thursday’s (Mar.16) game against Denver.
  • Hamidou Diallo (Pistons): The Pistons announced that Diallo has a grade 2 right ankle sprain and will be re-evaluated in 3-4 weeks.
  • Marvin Bagley III (Pistons): Pistons coach Dwane Casey said Bagley is likely to miss the next few games.
  • Bojan Bogdanovic (Pistons): Bogdanovic hasn’t played since Mar. 1 against Chicago and remains without a timetable to return.
  • Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): Gillespie has not played this season and no timetable has been announced for his return.
  • Zeke Nnaji (Nuggets): Nnaji has not played since Feb. 5 and no timetable has been announced for his return.
  • Jamal Murray (Nuggets): Murray is probable for Thursday’s (Mar.16) game against Detroit.

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (5,068/9,911) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,413/6,651) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 52% (1,623/3,125) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an eFG% of 58% in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

Detroit Pistons Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons are shooting 44% (5,879/13,306) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Pistons have a TS% of 48% since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Pistons have a TS% of 48% at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Pistons have an eFG% of 50% in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (928 blocks/222 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (308 blocks/77 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have 513 steals this season — 10th most among NBA teams

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (605 blocks/150 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Detroit Pistons Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons have averaged 34.2 defensive rebounds per game (7,627 rebounds/223 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36.0

The Pistons have averaged 33.9 defensive rebounds per game (5,125 rebounds/151 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.8

The Pistons have averaged 33.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,342 rebounds/69 games) this season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pistons have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (269 blocks/69 games) this season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.