NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions, Best Bets: Week 12

Below are my anytime touchdown scorer prop bet predictions for Week 12 of the NFL regular season. 

For those unfamiliar with this market, it simply asks bettors to identify players who will score a touchdown at any point during the game. 

Alternatively, bettors can wager on the game’s first touchdown scorer by identifying the player from either team who will find the end zone first. 

This season, be sure to check out BetMGM’s Second Chance Touchdown Scorer Offer! 

Let’s dive into my Week 12 predictions based on NFL betting lines. 

Touchdown Picks: Panthers vs. Chiefs

Based on Carolina’s penchant for allowing passing touchdowns and their struggles against tight ends, my anytime touchdown prediction is Travis Kelce (+115). 

The fact Kelce is north of even money slightly surprises me as Kelce has scored a touchdown in two of his previous four contests. 

On Sunday, he gets a Panthers defense 29th in pass defense DVOA against tight ends and 30th in total pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

The odds for Kansas City’s running backs – both Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt are -155 – suggest they’re a run-heavy team inside the red zone. 

But the opposite is true. 

Kansas City has attempted 35 passes from inside the 10-yard line compared to 30 rush attempts. 

Most of those Mahomes passes targeted Kelce, who has amassed eight red zone targets. That’s the most amongst all Chiefs pass catchers. 

Given Carolina has surrendered 1.8 passing touchdowns per game and has seen seven of 18 passing touchdowns go to tight ends, I’ll take the price on Kelce.

Touchdown Picks: Seahawks vs. Cardinals

Based on his success against zone coverage and Arizona’s weak pass defense, my touchdown scorer prediction is Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+170). 

Arizona plays zone coverage at the 11th-highest rate in the league, per PFF. 

Yet, the Cardinals pass defense ranks 29th in passing success rate in zone and 32nd in first down-plus-touchdown rate from zone, again per PFF. 

Smith-Njigba has excelled against zone coverage this season, drawing a 19.5% target share against zone. 

With 43 receptions and 469 yards, Smith-Njigba ranks first and second amongst Seahawks pass catchers. 

He also faces an Arizona pass defense that allows a disproportionate number of passing touchdowns away from home. 

In Glendale, Arizona has surrendered only 0.5 passing touchdowns per game. Away from home, that number jumps to two passing touchdowns per contest. 

Smith-Njigba also dominates in terms of red zone target share. Amongst all Seahawks wide receivers, he’s amassed 10 targets from inside the 20-yard line, which leads the team. 

From inside the five-yard line, he’s attracted four targets. That also leads the team. 

Both of Smith-Njigba’s touchdowns this year have come against zone coverage, so I’ll back him at +170.

TD Scorer Odds: Week 12 Trends

• Derrick Henry (-350) has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last 12 appearances.
• Jonathan Taylor (-105) has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last 10 appearances following a road win.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (-150) has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Lions’ last eight games.
• Jalen Hurts (PHI) has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Eagles’ last seven games following a win.
• Joe Mixon (-210) has scored at least one touchdown in 13 of his last 14 appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Kyren Williams (LAR) has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six Sunday home appearances.
• Nico Collins (+120) has scored at least one touchdown in nine of his last 10 home appearances against AFC opponents.