NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions, Best Bets: Week 11

Below are my anytime touchdown scorer prop bet predictions for Week 11 of the NFL regular season. 

For those unfamiliar with this market, it simply asks bettors to identify players who will score a touchdown at any point during the game. 

Alternatively, bettors can wager on the game’s first touchdown scorer by identifying the player from either team who will find the end zone first. 

This season, be sure to check out BetMGM’s Second Chance Touchdown Scorer Offer! 

Let’s dive into my Week 11 predictions based on NFL betting lines. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction: Saints vs. Browns

Based on New Orleans’ struggles defending the run and Cleveland’s red zone tendencies, my anytime touchdown prediction is Nick Chubb (-105). 

Chubb has failed to score in two straight contests. However, he gets a Saints defense allowing 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game, the third-worst mark in the NFL. 

Studying Chubb’s successes and failures, finding the end zone is notable, too. 

He failed to score against Baltimore (ninth in opponent rush touchdowns) and vs. the Chargers (second in opponent rushing touchdowns). 

But his success came against the Bengals, a side 28th in that category.

Albeit in a limited sample, the Browns consistently turn to Chubb deep in enemy territory. 

Since Week 7, Chubb has amassed 10 attempts from inside the 20-yard line and five attempts from inside the 10-yard line. 

Comparatively, Cleveland attempted 13 passes from inside the 20-yard line and only five attempts from inside the 10-yard line. 

Against a bad Saints rush defense, expect the Browns to lean on Chubb. Bet him to score for the second time in four games. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction: Steelers vs. Ravens

Based on Baltimore’s record allowing passing touchdowns, my anytime touchdown prediction is Pat Freiermuth (+180). 

Baltimore has surrendered loads of passing touchdowns this year. At 2.2 per game, the Ravens rank 32nd in opponent passing touchdowns per game. 

Generally, most of those have gone to opposing wide receivers. Of the 22 passing touchdowns they’ve surrendered, 16 have gone to opposing wide receivers. 

However, Kyle Hamilton didn’t practice on Wednesday and appears unlikely to play on Sunday. Generally, Hamilton receives the assignment to defend opposing tight ends. 

That should open the door for Freiermuth, who has cashed his anytime touchdown ticket three times this season, including last week against Washington. 

On Sunday, he gets a Baltimore defense that allowed a touchdown to Bengals tight end Tanner Hudson last week. 

Plus, there’s a game script element to this bet. I expect Pittsburgh will play from behind and face more obvious passing situations. 

Accordingly, it likely sees them abandon the run and throw more to score. 

Back Freiermuth to score so long as Hamilton doesn’t play on Sunday in Pittsburgh. 

Anytime TD Scorer Predictions: Week 11 Trends

• Derrick Henry (BAL) has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last 11 appearances.
• Raheem Mostert (MIA) has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last 10 appearances with the Dolphins as favorites following a win.
• Christian McCaffrey (SF) has scored at least one touchdown in 20 of his last 21 appearances on the West Coast.
• Kyren Williams (LAR) has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last eight appearances following a loss.
• David Montgomery (DET) has scored a touchdown in each of his last seven Sunday regular season home appearances.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) has scored a touchdown in each of the Lions’ last seven games.
• George Pickens (PIT) has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Steelers’ last six games as home underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Joe Mixon (HOU) has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six appearances following a loss.