- The Bengals are a 3-point home favorite against the Broncos.
- The favorites have won each of the Broncos' last 11 games.
- My Bengals vs. Broncos prediction is for Denver to cover the spread.
With a chance at the playoffs slightly within reach, the Bengals host the Broncos at Paycor Stadium.
Cincinnati captured a win and cover on Sunday in a 24-6 victory over the Cleveland Browns. Now, Cincinnati sits at 7-8, needing to win out and get some help to reach the playoffs.
Denver fell 34-27 as road dogs last Thursday to the Chargers, falling to the sixth seed in the AFC playoff picture. Not since Week 2 has Denver failed to cover a spread in two straight games.
Bet on Bengals vs. Broncos and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 17 Odds: Bengals vs. Broncos
Bengals vs. Broncos Prediction
Based on Cincinnati’s flawed ATS record against good pass defenses, my Bengals vs. Broncos prediction is the Broncos Spread (+3, -110).
This game is wildly fascinating to me.
The two known quantities in this contest are the Bengals offense – fifth in DVOA – and the Broncos defense – fourth in defensive DVOA.
However, both teams have accomplished those records against a relatively easy set of opponents.
Cincinnati’s offensive DVOA rating comes against the sixth-easiest set of opposing defenses, while Denver’s defensive DVOA rating comes against the fifth-easiest set of offenses.
On Saturday, Cincinnati is likely to try and force feed their pass catchers. However, that strategy hasn’t worked against good pass defenses like the Broncos.
This season, Cincinnati is 0-3 SU against teams eighth or better in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
Denver has played only two games against teams seventh or better in pass offense DVOA, but Sean Payton led his team to a 1-1 SU and ATS record in those contests.
There’s also the extra rest factor for the Broncos on Saturday, but the spread strikes me as a bit odd.
In Week 8, Cincinnati closed at -2.5 against the Eagles. My belief is that there’s a greater gap between the Eagles and Broncos than a half-point.
That said, Denver has played eight games against teams 16th or worse in defensive DVOA this season. Payton’s side is 8-0 SU in those contests, with only one game decided within one score.
The Bengals, of course, rate out an anomaly, given its potent offense. However, it would be Denver or nothing on Saturday.
Betting Bengals vs. Broncos: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Bengals vs. Broncos public betting data and insights.
