Bills vs Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 16, 2022, 9:05 AM
  • The Bills (4-1) are -2.5 point favorites vs the Chiefs (4-1)
  • Total (Over/Under): 54 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Buffalo Bills (4-1) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) on Oct. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Bills are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Bills vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 54 total points for the game.

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Bills vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 6

  Spread Total (O/U) Moneyline
Bills -2.5 -115 54 -110 -145
Chiefs +2.5 -105 54 -110 +120

Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 6 game with 64.0% confidence.

Bills vs Chiefs Spread Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread this Week 6 with 61.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Chiefs, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

 

  • Gabriel Davis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.25 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Carries Over in his last 5 away games (+5.05 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Jamison Crowder has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.65 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Dawson Knox has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.40 Units / 39% ROI)

 

Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

 

  • Mecole Hardman has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.35 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.50 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+4.40 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Ronald Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)

 

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Bills

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Travis Kelce +700
Stefon Diggs +700
Gabriel Davis +900
Devin Singletary +1000
Josh Allen +1100

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Bills

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Travis Kelce -150
Stefon Diggs -115
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +110
Gabriel Davis +120
Devin Singletary +135

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Bills

Player Name Over Under
Stefon Diggs 87.5 -110 87.5 -120
Jerick McKinnon 12.5 -120 12.5 -110
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 45.5 -115 45.5 -115
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 19.5 -110 19.5 -120
Noah Gray 10.5 -110 10.5 -120

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Bills

Player Name Over Under
Jerick McKinnon 17.5 -115 17.5 -115
Devin Singletary 40.5 -120 40.5 -110
Patrick Mahomes 23.5 -110 23.5 -120
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 36.5 -115 36.5 -115
Josh Allen 49.5 -120 49.5 -110

 

  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.20 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have scored first in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.65 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.00 Units / 42% ROI)

 

 

  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 18 games (+7.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.05 Units / 70% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)

 

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 34.23% ROI).

  • Bills are 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 10.87% ROI
  • Bills are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
  • Bills are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / ROI

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 2-3 (-1.35 Units / -24.32% ROI).

  • Chiefs are 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 15.86% ROI
  • Chiefs are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
  • Chiefs are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Bills are 10-5 (.667) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 251.4 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fifth-worst in NFL.

The Bills are winless (0-4) when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .334.

The Bills are winless (0-3) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .150.

The Bills are winless (0-5) when scoring less than 22 points since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .236.

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Chiefs are 3-1 (.750) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .521.

The Chiefs are 7-5 (.583) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .279.

The Chiefs are 6-4 (.600) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2020 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .194.

The Chiefs are 11-2 (.846) when leading at the end of first quarter since the 2021 season — 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .690.

Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have scored on 50% of their drives in the first quarter this season — tied for second-best in NFL. The Bills defense has allowed scores on 45.5% of opponent drives in the first quarter this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

The Bills have run successful plays on 52.9% of pass attempts this season — third-best in NFL. Chiefs have allowed successful plays on 51.7% of pass attempts this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

The Bills have been successful on 50.6% of plays they have run this season — best in NFL. Chiefs have allowed their opponents to be successful on 47.5% of plays this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

Bills WRs have 84 receptions in 5 games (16.8 per game) this season — third-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 30.8 receptions per game this season — worst in NFL.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 6

The Bills ran successful plays on 100% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Bills ran 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Bills have run 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 57% this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats for Week 6

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 60% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 55% of plays in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chiefs converted first downs on 107 of 206 plays (52%) on 3rd down last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Chiefs have converted first downs on 18 of 46 plays (39%) on plays when their QB has been pressured this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 6

The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 66.0 (697 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.3.

The Bills defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (298 completions/531 attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 65%.

The Bills defense allowed first downs on 26% of pass attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats for Week 6

The Chiefs defense has allowed 18 of 79 (23%) first downs on the ground this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

Offenses facing the Chiefs have thrown the ball 66% of the time (174 Pass Attempts/264 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

The Chiefs defense has blitzed on 24% of plays this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

Opponents have averaged 30.5 completions per game (122 / 4) against The Chiefs defense this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 22.0.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.