Browns vs Falcons Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

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Marcus Mariota QB Atlanta Falcons
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 11:04 AM
  • The Browns (2-1) are -1.5 point favorites vs the Falcons (1-2)
  • Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Cleveland Browns (2-1) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (1-2) on Oct. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Browns are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Browns vs. Falcons Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.

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Browns vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 4

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Browns-1.5 -11047.5 -110-125
Falcons +1.5 -11047.5 -110+105

Browns vs. Falcons Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Browns will win this Week 4 game with 53.5% confidence.

Browns vs Falcons Spread Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread this Week 4 with 57.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Browns and Falcons, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Browns Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Browns players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Chester Rogers has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Jacoby Brissett has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.60 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Nick Chubb has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • David Njoku has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+4.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Amari Cooper has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 away games (+2.55 Units / 29% ROI)

Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Anthony Firkser has hit the Receptions Under in his last 7 games (+7.20 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Bryan Edwards has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Anthony Firkser has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 11 games (+2.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 4 of his last 7 games at home (+1.60 Units / 18% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Falcons vs Browns

Player Name Over Under
Drake London 56.5 -115 56.5 -115
Kyle Pitts 55.5 -110 55.5 -115
Amari Cooper 59.5 -115 59.5 -115
David Njoku 36.5 -115 36.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Falcons vs Browns

Player Name Over Under
Jacoby Brissett 13.5 -115 13.5 -115
Nick Chubb 86.5 -115 86.5 -115
  • The Cleveland Browns have scored first in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.45 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.65 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 66% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+8.20 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 70% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+5.85 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.05 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns have gone 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Browns are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -9.65% ROI
  • Browns are 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Browns are 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / ROI

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons have gone 3-0 (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Falcons are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -32.79% ROI
  • Falcons are 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Falcons are 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI

Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Browns are winless (0-6) when rushing for less than 100 yards since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .333.

The Browns are 5-7 (.417) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .493.

The Browns are winless (0-5) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .195.

The Browns are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 10 rushes of four or more yards since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .672.

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns

The Falcons are winless (0-3) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .631.

The Falcons are 1-7 (.125) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .448.

The Falcons are winless (0-1) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .506.

The Falcons are 1-5 (.167) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2021 season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .407.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have rushed the ball on 61.3% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone this season — fourth-highest in NFL. The Browns have allowed 4 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for second-most in NFL.

The Falcons have 4 rushing touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-most in NFL. The Browns have allowed 4 rushing TDs this season — tied for third-most in NFL.

The Browns have scored on 48.4% of their drives this season — second-best in NFL. The Falcons defense has allowed scores on 50% of opponent drives this season — third-worst in NFL.

The Browns have scored 8 TDs in the red zone this season — tied for third-most in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 9 TDs when defending in the red zone this season — tied for second-most in NFL.

The Browns have scored on 50% of their drives in the second half this season — tied for second-best in NFL. The Falcons defense has allowed scores on 46.7% of opponent drives in the second half this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Browns have faced a blitz just 7% of the time this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Browns have thrown the ball 26% of the time (15 Pass Attempts/58 plays) in close and late situations this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

The Browns have run the ball on 54% of plays (113 carries/210 plays) this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Browns have gone three and out 4 times in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Falcons have run successful plays on 73% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Falcons have run successful plays on 68% of pass attempts in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Falcons ran successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Falcons have run successful plays on 64% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 30%.

Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

Offenses facing the Browns threw deep balls on 31% of pass attempts (10/32) in Week 3 — tied for 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 41% of pass attempts last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Browns defense has allowed 3 TD passes in close and late situations this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Browns defense allowed 1.6 yards after the catch (32 RAC / 20 receptions) in Week 3 — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Falcons defense sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (18/593) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Falcons defense averaged a sack every 32.9 pass attempts (593 Pass Attempts/18 Sacks) last season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 16.1.

The Falcons defense has averaged a sack every 28.6 pass attempts (714 Pass Attempts/25 Sacks) since the 2021 season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 16.0.

The Falcons defense has pressured opposing QBs on 17% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.