Buccaneers vs Browns Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

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Myles Garrett Cleveland Browns muscles
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 27, 2022, 10:28 AM
  • The Buccaneers (5-5) are -3.5 point favorites vs the Browns (3-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) visit FirstEnergy Stadium to take on the Cleveland Browns (3-7) on Nov. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Cleveland.

The Buccaneers are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Buccaneers vs. Browns Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.

Bet now on Browns vs Buccaneers & all NFL games with BetMGM

Buccaneers vs. Browns Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Buccaneers-3.5 -10543 -110-185
Browns +3.5 -11543 -110+150

Buccaneers vs. Browns Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this Week 12 game with 62.3% confidence.

Buccaneers vs Browns Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread this Week 12 with 52.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Buccaneers and Browns, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tom Brady has hit the TD Passes Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Tom Brady has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.85 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Mike Evans has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.00 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Tyler Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Cade Otton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 50% ROI)

Best Browns Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Browns players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Donovan Peoples-Jones has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.35 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Jacoby Brissett has hit the Completions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Jacoby Brissett has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Harrison Bryant has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games (+6.05 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Donovan Peoples-Jones has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 13 games (+10.90 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.10 Units / 75% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have scored first in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.45 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+6.15 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 90% ROI)

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers have gone 3-6 (-3.6 Units / -32.73% ROI).

  • Buccaneers are 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.2 Units / -39.31% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 2-8 when betting the Over for -6.8 Units / -61.82% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 8-2 when betting the Under for +5.8 Units / ROI

Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns have gone 4-6 (-2.65 Units / -24.31% ROI).

  • Browns are 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -42.32% ROI
  • Browns are 7-2 when betting the Over for +4.8 Units / 43.64% ROI
  • Browns are 2-7 when betting the Under for -5.7 Units / -51.82% ROI

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns

The Buccaneers are 2-3 (.400) at home this season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .540.

The Buccaneers are winless (0-2) when allowing 3 or more sacks this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .373.

The Buccaneers are 16-3 (.842) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .596.

The Buccaneers are 4-2 (.667) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season — tied for 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .528.

Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Browns are winless (0-5) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .358.

The Browns are 1-7 (.125) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .443.

The Browns are winless (0-2) when making less than 7 explosive plays this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .387.

The Browns are winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .400.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cleveland Browns

The Browns have run successful plays on just 37.0% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — fourth-worst in NFL. Buccaneers have allowed successful plays on just 40.6% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — second-best in NFL.

Browns RBs have averaged 2.3 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for third-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 2.0 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.

Browns RBs have averaged 2.3 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for third-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 1.9 yards after contact per carry this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have scored on 60% of their drives in the fourth quarter since Week 7 — second-best in NFL. The Browns defense has allowed scores on 70% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since Week 7 — worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have thrown the ball 10 yards or less 73.5% of pass attempts this season — fourth-highest in NFL. The Browns have allowed just 5.5 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL.

The Buccaneers have turned the ball over 7 times this season — tied for fewest in NFL. The Browns have forced 8 turnovers this season — tied for third-fewest in NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Buccaneers have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 12% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The Buccaneers converted first downs on 53 of 70 plays (76%) on 3rd and short last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 62%.

The Buccaneers have run 34% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter since Week 8 — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 53% of plays in the 1st quarter last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Browns have started 9 drives inside their own 10 yard line since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.

The Browns have converted first downs on 69 of 196 plays (35%) in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Browns have started 4 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — tied for fewest in NFL.

The Browns have gone three and out 6 times in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Buccaneers defense has blitzed 413 times since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Buccaneers defense has blitzed on 24% of plays since the 2021 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

Only 38% of the plays run against the Buccaneers have been in their own territory this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Buccaneers defense allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Browns defense has allowed scores on 73% of opponent drives in the 2nd half since Week 8 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 35%.

The Browns defense has allowed scores on 54% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 41% of pass attempts last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 36% of pass attempts in close and late situations last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.