Buccaneers vs Falcons Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

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Marcus Mariota QB Atlanta Falcons
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 06, 2023, 4:15 PM
  • The Falcons (6-10) are -4 point favorites vs the Buccaneers (8-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 40.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (6-10) on Jan. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Atlanta.

The Falcons are betting favorites in Week 18, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The Buccaneers vs. Falcons Over/Under is 40.5 total points for the game.

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Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 18

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Buccaneers+4 -11040.5 -110+165
Falcons -4 -11040.5 -110-200

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this Week 18 game with 71.0% confidence.

Buccaneers vs Falcons Spread Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread this Week 18 with 61.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Buccaneers and Falcons, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tom Brady has hit the Completions Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.90 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Tom Brady has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.60 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Tom Brady has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Chris Godwin has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.60 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Rachaad White has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)

Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tyler Allgeier has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.55 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Marcus Mariota has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Marcus Mariota has hit the Completions Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Marcus Mariota has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.60 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games (+10.05 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.15 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.90 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.80 Units / 70% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have scored last in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.20 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 36% ROI)

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers have gone 4-11 (-8.3 Units / -46.63% ROI).

  • Buccaneers are 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.9 Units / -29.42% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 5-11 when betting the Over for -7.1 Units / -40.34% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 11-5 when betting the Under for +5.5 Units / ROI

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons have gone 8-8 (-0.85 Units / -4.82% ROI).

  • Falcons are 6-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -19.14% ROI
  • Falcons are 6-10 when betting the Over for -5 Units / -28.41% ROI
  • Falcons are 10-6 when betting the Under for +3.4 Units / 19.32% ROI

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Buccaneers are undefeated (3-0) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .593.

The Buccaneers are 11-4 (.733) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .494.

The Buccaneers are 1-5 (.167) when allowing more than 5 yards per rush this season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .442.

The Buccaneers are 2-7 (.222) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .410.

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Falcons are winless (0-5) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .458.

The Falcons are 5-10 (.333) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season — tied for 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.

The Falcons are 2-6 (.250) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes this season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .453.

The Falcons are 2-1 (.667) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game this season — tied for 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .535.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have thrown the ball just 40.8% of the time this season — second-lowest in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed just 6.0 yards per dropback this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.

Falcons RBs have just 20.8 receiving yards per game this season — third-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have averaged just 24.1 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs this season — tied for third-best in NFL.

The Falcons have thrown for just 4.4 yards per attempt out of the shotgun since Week 14 — worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed just 5.2 yards per dropback against the shotgun since Week 14 — tied for fourth-best in NFL.

The Buccaneers have thrown the ball 64.9% of the time this season — highest in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 7.2 yards per dropback this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 13.1% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL. The Falcons have pressured opposing QBs on just 13.3% of passing plays this season — worst in NFL.

Buccaneers QBs have been 22 sacked this season — fewest in NFL. The Falcons have sacked the quarterback 21 times this season — second-fewest in NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Buccaneers threw the ball 77% of the time (108 Pass Attempts/140 plays) on second and 4-7 yards to go last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

The Buccaneers are averaging 19.5 drives per TD in the 1st quarter this season — 2nd-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 6.2.

The Buccaneers have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 12% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The Buccaneers had 17 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — tied for 2nd-most in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Falcons have thrown the ball 41% of the time (385 Pass Attempts/944 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

The Falcons have run the ball on 54% of plays (514 carries/944 plays) this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Falcons have run successful plays on 56% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Falcons ran 39% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Buccaneers defense has blitzed on 23% of plays since the 2021 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Buccaneers defense have forced three and outs on 29% of opponent drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

Only 10% of the plays run against the Buccaneers have been in the red zone in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Buccaneers defense has blitzed 463 times since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Falcons defense averaged a sack every 32.9 pass attempts (593 Pass Attempts/18 Sacks) last season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 16.1.

The Falcons defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 72% on 3rd and short since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

The Falcons defense has allowed successful plays on 54% of plays in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (39/1,141) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.