- The Cardinals are predicted to be -1-point favorites against the Rams.
- Los Angeles finished 2-0 SU against the Cardinals last season.
- My prediction for Sunday’s game is Kyren Williams’ rushing yards prop.
With both teams fresh off losses, the Rams and Cardinals clash in Scottsdale for the debut NFC West matchup of the season.
Los Angeles plays their second straight road game to open the season. In Week 1, they traveled to Detroit and fell 26-20 in overtime.
As for Arizona, they started strong against the Bills. However, a meltdown in the second half doomed the Cardinals to a 34-28 loss.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my Cardinals vs. Rams prediction.
Cardinals vs. Rams Odds
- Arizona Cardinals Moneyline: -120
- Los Angeles Rams Moneyline: +100
- Game Spread: Arizona Cardinals -1 (-110)
- Game Over/Under: 48 Points
Cardinals vs. Rams Prediction
My prediction for Cardinals vs. Rams is Kyren Williams 100+ Rushing Yards (+200).
I concede that the injuries along the Rams offensive line are worrisome. However, there’s simultaneously a case for optimism.
Against a strong Lions defensive line — fourth in rush EPA per play allowed last season — LA finished with the sixth-best success rate on the ground in Week 1.
According to ESPN Analytics, both Warren McLendon Jr. and Kevin Dotson (questionable) finished 10th or better in run block win rate amongst tackles and interior linemen, respectively.
Plus, there’s a chance both Dotson and tackle Rob Havenstein could play on Sunday. If they do, I like Williams to continue his success against Arizona.
Last season, Williams rushed for 140 or more yards three times. Two of those successes came against the Cardinals.
Arizona did nothing to shore up their defensive line in the offseason. Accordingly, it’s no surprise they ranked 26th in rush success rate in Week 1 a season after sitting 31st.
Finally, some betting calculus. Williams over 16.5 rushing attempts is priced at -135.
Last season, Williams amassed 16 or more rushing attempts eight times. He cleared 100 yards in six of those games and never produced more than 87 yards.
That makes this price worth a bet at +200 in the hopes that LA’s run blocking continues its success.
Another Cardinals vs. Rams Prediction I have for this game is the Rams Moneyline (+100).
This number has moved way too far. Under head coach Jonathan Gannon, this game marks the first time Arizona will close as a market favorite.
The crazy part? It’s coming against a Rams team that has dominated them under Sean McVay.
Since 2017, Los Angeles is 14-2 SU against the Cardinals, with one of those losses coming at home behind then third-string quarterback John Wolford!
The big question with Los Angeles is whether their offensive line holds up.
In good news, they face a Cardinals defense that ranked 32nd in pass rush win rate and 15th in run stop win rate against Buffalo, per ESPN.
If Matthew Stafford remains upright, he’ll play a Cardinals secondary that is 32nd in both dropback EPA per play and dropback success rate since the start of last season.
LA also matches a historically profitable system.
Essentially, bettors want to take September and October road dogs when both teams lost their last game and the visiting team has between four and seven days between games.
Since 2003, those teams are 68.9% ATS, including 14-4 ATS when they close between -1 and +2.5.
When the latter group of teams finds itself in a divisional game: 7-2 ATS.
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