Chargers vs Broncos Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 06, 2023, 4:15 PM
  • The Chargers (10-6) are -3 point favorites vs the Broncos (4-12)
  • Total (Over/Under): 40 points

The Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (4-12) on Jan. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Denver.

The Broncos are betting favorites in Week 18, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).

The Chargers vs. Broncos Over/Under is 40 total points for the game.

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Chargers vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 18

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Chargers+3 -10540 -110+145
Broncos -3 -11540 -110-175

Chargers vs. Broncos Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this Week 18 game with 65.8% confidence.

Chargers vs Broncos Spread Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chargers will cover the spread this Week 18 with 56.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chargers and Broncos, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Gerald Everett has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Completions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Mike Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.70 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.35 Units / 26% ROI)

Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Chase Edmonds has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Russell Wilson has hit the TD Passes Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.75 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Russell Wilson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Russell Wilson has hit the Pass Attempts Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Chase Edmonds has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.60 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 12 games (+11.05 Units / 85% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2Q Spread in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.35 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.75 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+7.85 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.85 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+9.90 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 58% ROI)

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers have gone 10-5 (+4.5 Units / 25.79% ROI).

  • Chargers are 10-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 5.86% ROI
  • Chargers are 5-9 when betting the Over for -4.9 Units / -27.84% ROI
  • Chargers are 9-5 when betting the Under for +3.5 Units / ROI

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos have gone 7-9 (-3.05 Units / -17.18% ROI).

  • Broncos are 4-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.75 Units / -48.76% ROI
  • Broncos are 5-11 when betting the Over for -7.15 Units / -40.51% ROI
  • Broncos are 11-5 when betting the Under for +5.5 Units / 31.34% ROI

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Chargers are 6-1 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards per rush since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .532.

The Chargers are 5-3 (.625) on the road this season — tied for 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .440.

The Chargers are 3-1 (.750) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season — tied for 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .593.

The Chargers are 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .570.

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Broncos are winless (0-8) on the road this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.

The Broncos are 2-10 (.167) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .492.

The Broncos are 3-14 (.176) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.

The Broncos are winless (0-5) when allowing 250 or more passing yards this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .480.

Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos ran just 31.8% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field last week — fourth-worst in NFL. Chargers allowed their opponents to runjust 31.9% of plays in their territory in Week 14 — fifth-best in NFL.

The Broncos have run just 6.1% offensive plays in the red zone since Week 14 — worst in NFL. Chargers has allowed their opponent to run just 6.9% of plays in the red zone since Week 14 — best in NFL.

The Broncos have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 28.7% of pass attempts since Week 14 — third-worst in NFL. The Chargers have pressured opposing QBs on 28.4% of passing plays since Week 14 — fourth-best in NFL.

Chargers RBs have 7 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for second-most in NFL. The Broncos have allowed 4 receiving touchdowns to RBs this season — tied for fifth-most in NFL.

The Chargers have scored on 50% of their drives in the first half since Week 14 — tied for fourth-best in NFL. The Broncos defense has allowed scores on 54.2% of opponent drives in the first half since Week 14 — third-worst in NFL.

Chargers RBs have 6 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since Week 14 — most in NFL. The Broncos have allowed 5 rushing TDs since Week 14 — tied for fourth-most in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Chargers averaged 121.6 yards from scrimmage per game (2,067 yards / 17 games) in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 94.8.

The Chargers had a third down conversion rate of 35% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Chargers have an average drive start position from the 30.0 yard line in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 25.6.

The Chargers converted first downs on 32 of 91 plays (35%) on 3rd and long last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Broncos have started 20 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st quarter this season — most in NFL.

The Broncos have run 8% of their plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Broncos have run 35% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Broncos have started 8 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 1st quarter this season — most in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

Only 27% of the plays run against the Chargers have been in their own territory since Week 14 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Chargers defense has allowed an average of 2.2 yards after contact per carry (910 carries) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

The Chargers defense has allowed just one passing TD (102 pass attempts) since Week 14 — best Pass Attempts Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 23.5.

The Chargers defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 57% in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Broncos defense allowed just 6.9 points per game to opposing offenses (117 points / 17 games) in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

The Broncos defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 15% on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 36% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Broncos defense has allowed first downs on 30% of pass attempts on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.