Chargers vs Broncos Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

BetMGM Betting Dec 31, 2025, 4:09 PM

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Kick off for the 2024 NFL season at Empower Field at Mile High during the Denver Broncos v Pittsburgh Steelers during an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 15, 2024 in Denver. (AP Photo/Bart Young)

(AP Photo/Bart Young)

The Broncos are -12.5 point favorites vs the Chargers
Total (Over/Under): 37.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Los Angeles Chargers (11-5-0) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (13-3-0) on Jan. 4. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Denver, CO.

The Broncos are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-110).

The Chargers vs. Broncos Over/Under is 37.5 total points for the game.

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Chargers vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Chargers vs. Broncos Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Broncos will win this game with 75.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today

Justin Herbert has hit the Longest Rush Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 40% ROI)
Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Cameron Dicker has hit the Field Goals Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.70 Units / 48% ROI)
Oronde Gadsden II has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 39% ROI)
Tre Harris has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.45 Units / 52% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today

RJ Harvey has hit the Longest Rush Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.55 Units / 50% ROI)
Courtland Sutton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 35% ROI)
Pat Bryant has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
RJ Harvey has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.00 Units / 36% ROI)
Elijah Moore has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+6.80 Units / 77% ROI)

Chargers Best Bets:

The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+3.28 Units / 13% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.10 Units / 13% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.05 Units / 15% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.05 Units / 8% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.65 Units / 25% ROI)

Broncos Best Bets:

The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 21 games (+13.75 Units / 23% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+7.10 Units / 45% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.75 Units / 33% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.60 Units / 45% ROI)

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers are 9-7 (+1.3 Units / 7.39% ROI).

Chargers are 11-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.3 Units / 13.46% ROI
Chargers are 7-9 when betting the Over for -2.9 Units / -16.48% ROI
Chargers are 9-7 when betting the Under for +1.3 Units / ROI

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos are 6-10 (-4.9 Units / -28% ROI).

Broncos are 13-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.75 Units / 22.44% ROI
Broncos are 7-9 when betting the Over for -2.9 Units / -16.48% ROI
Broncos are 9-7 when betting the Under for +1.3 Units / 7.39% ROI

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Broncos’ opponents have averaged 39.6 Passing Attempts per TD (951 Pass Attempts/24 Passing TDs) this season — best Pass Attempts Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 21.2.

The Broncos defense has hit opposing QBs on 27% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Broncos defense has pressured opposing QBs on 36% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The Broncos’ opponents have averaged 8.9 Passing Attempts per TD (125 Pass Attempts/14 Passing TDs) in the red zone this season — 2nd-best Pass Attempts Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 3.9.

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers were not flagged on offense in Week 17 — T-fewest in NFL.

The Chargers have averaged just 1.9 yards per play against tight coverage this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 3.1.

The Chargers have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 49% of pass attempts since Week 14 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 27%.

The Chargers have scored 9 TDs from their own territory this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos