Browns Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Browns win total sits at 4.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Cleveland took a massive step back in 2024. After reaching the playoffs in 2023 behind 11 wins, the Browns mustered only three in 2024, which tied for the worst record in the league. 

After a public trade request, Myles Garrett ultimately signed an extension to stay in Cleveland. Now, the Browns look to find stability at quarterback with one of five choices. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Cleveland’s 2025 win total and my Browns win total prediction. 

Browns Win Total Odds

The Browns’ season win total is set at 4.5 games. 

Oddsmakers expect the over to be the more likely outcome. Currently, Cleveland is -165 to win five or more games, an implied probability of 62.2%. 

Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with four or fewer wins is +140, an implied probability of 41.7%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all AFC North teams:

• Baltimore Ravens: 11.5 Wins
• Cincinnati Bengals: 9.5 Wins
• Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Wins
• Cleveland Browns: 4.5 Wins

Browns Win Total Prediction 2025

Cleveland Browns Under 4.5 Wins (+140)

Based on Cleveland’s difficult schedule, especially for its defense this season, I predict the Browns finish Under 4.5 Wins (+140). 

BET: Browns Over 4.5 Wins @ -175

BET: Browns Under 4.5 Wins @ +145  

When the Browns won 11 games in 2023, it was built on the heels of a top-tier defense. 

That season, Cleveland finished second in defensive DVOA against the seventh-hardest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

The Browns took a major step back in 2024. Playing the second-hardest set of offenses, Cleveland ranked 25th in defensive DVOA. 

That could create a strong buy-low spot on the Browns, except for the fact the offensive schedule actually gets harder in 2025. 

Based on Cleveland’s opponents’ 2025 offensive DVOA ratings, the Browns are scheduled to face the hardest set of opposing offenses. 

From a cumulative difficulty standpoint, the schedule rates out amongst the hardest in the league. 

Based on opponent win totals, Cleveland faces the second-hardest schedule in the league. 

That’s the reality for a team that plays 13 games against teams with win totals set at 8.5 or higher. 

Even if the Steelers fail to sign a veteran quarterback and their win total drops, it’s still 11 games against teams projected around average or above average. 

Realistically, it’s difficult to find a game where the Browns will close as a market favorite. 

Even more concerning for Cleveland? Their opponents trended unlucky in 2024, meaning the schedule could prove more difficult than meets the eye.

Cleveland’s opponents in 2025 won 150 games last season compared to 155.2 expected victories. That delta (-5.2) ranks as the second-largest underperformance for all teams. 

If the Browns’ opponents see some positive regression and their defense takes a step back, it’s difficult to see the offense performing at a level to overcome that trend. 

Tommy Rees takes over as the offensive coordinator, the second straight year Cleveland employs a new OC. 

I struggle to see how Rees improves a Browns team that posted the worst offensive DVOA rating since the Cardinals in 2018. 

As a result, I’m inclined to take the plus money and back the Browns to finish under 4.5 wins. 

Most Wins in Browns History

The Browns’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 12. Cleveland posted a 12-4 record in 1986 but lost in the AFC Championship Game.

They’re one of 12 NFL teams that have never won a Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Browns History

The Browns’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is zero. Cleveland went 0-16 in the 2017 campaign.