- The Commanders are -5 point favorites vs the Cowboys
- Total (Over/Under): 44 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Washington Commanders (11-5-0) visit AT&T Stadium to take on the Dallas Cowboys (7-9-0) on Jan. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Arlington, TX.
The Commanders are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5 (-110).
The Commanders vs. Cowboys Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.
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Commanders vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Commanders | -5 -110 | 44 -110 | -225 |
| Cowboys | +5 -110 | 44 -110 | +185 |
Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this game with 61.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Commanders vs Cowboys Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread with 58.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today
- Austin Seibert has hit the Field Goals Over in his last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 85% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Pass Attempts Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Completions Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 92% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 5 games (+5.85 Units / 112% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cowboys Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Brandon Aubrey has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+6.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Dak Prescott has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Cooper Rush has hit the Carries Over in his last 5 games (+5.90 Units / 102% ROI)
- Rico Dowdle has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
- Rico Dowdle has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 6 away games (+6.10 Units / 88% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+5.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.87 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.85 Units / 21% ROI)
Cowboys Best Bets:
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+4.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders art 10-5 (+4.55 Units / 25.63% ROI).
- Commanders are 11-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.3 Units / 13.37% ROI
- Commanders are 11-5 when betting the Over for +5.5 Units / 31.25% ROI
- Commanders are 5-11 when betting the Under for -7.1 Units / ROI
Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys are 6-10 (-4.95 Units / -28.45% ROI).
- Cowboys are 7-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 4.41% ROI
- Cowboys are 11-5 when betting the Over for +5.5 Units / 31.25% ROI
- Cowboys are 5-11 when betting the Under for -7.1 Units / -40.34% ROI
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys
The Commanders are 9-2 (.818) when rushing for 120 or more yards this season — 7th-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed an average of 140.2 rushing yards per game this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Commanders are 10-3 (.769) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 6th-best in NFL. The Cowboys have turned the ball over 27 times this season — T-4th-most in NFL.
The Commanders were 2-8 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Commanders were 2-12 (.143) when committing 1 or more turnovers last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .406.
Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Cowboys are 14-4 (.778) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season — T-9th-best in NFL. The Commanders have intercepted 15 passes since the 2023 season — fewest in NFL.
The Cowboys are 7-1 (.875) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Cowboys were 12-1 (.923) when forcing 1 or more turnovers last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .594.
The Cowboys were undefeated (4-0) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have run successful plays on just 33.3% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — worst in NFL. The Commanders have allowed successful plays on just 37.5% of rush attempts with a base rush this season — best in NFL.
The Cowboys have run successful plays on just 43.9% of rush attempts against a base rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Commanders have allowed successful plays on just 46.6% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.
Cowboys WRs have 46 receiving touchdowns since the 2023 season — T-3rd-most in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 64 receiving touchdowns since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
The Commanders have been successful on 52.1% of plays they have run against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed their opponents to be successful on 51.2% of plays with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
The Commanders have averaged 0.22 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed 0.23 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL.
The Commanders have averaged 0.26 epa per play against a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed 0.59 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats
The Commanders ran successful plays on 69% of rush attempts against a base front in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Commanders have run successful plays on 65% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The Commanders have run 23% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
The Commanders ran 56% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats
The Cowboys have run successful plays on 56% of plays against a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Cowboys committed 4 turnovers in Week 17 — most in NFL.
The Cowboys have run successful plays on 24% of pass attempts against a heavy rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Cowboys ran successful plays on 43% of pass attempts on passes when their QB was pressured last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats
The Commanders defense allowed 0.16 epa per play in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Commanders defense has allowed scores on 49% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 34%.
The Commanders defense allowed scores on 46% of opponent drives last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 35%.
The Commanders defense allowed scores on 51% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats
The Cowboys defense have allowed 7.4 yards per play on first drive of the game this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
The Cowboys defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 16% in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
The Cowboys defense has stuffed 9% (6/71) of rushing attempts in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 24%.
The Cowboys defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 16% on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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