Cowboys vs 49ers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 8

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(Kyusung Gong/AP Photo)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 24, 2024, 4:18 PM

The 49ers are -4 point favorites vs the Cowboys
Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
Watch this game on NBC | TELE | UNIV

The Dallas Cowboys (3-3-0) visit Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers (3-4-0) on Oct. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Santa Clara, CA.

The 49ers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The Cowboys vs. 49ers Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.

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Cowboys vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Cowboys	+4 -110	46.5 -110	+165
49ers	-4 -110	46.5 -110	-200

Cowboys vs. 49ers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the 49ers will win this game with 62.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Cowboys vs 49ers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread with 56.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cowboys Player Prop Bets Today

Dak Prescott has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 34% ROI)
Brandon Aubrey has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.05 Units / 21% ROI)
Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Rico Dowdle has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 31% ROI)
Rico Dowdle has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for 49ers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best 49ers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Christian McCaffrey has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 67% ROI)
George Kittle has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 54% ROI)
Brock Purdy has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+7.10 Units / 65% ROI)
George Kittle has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.05 Units / 33% ROI)
Christian McCaffrey has hit the Longest Rush Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 53% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for 49ers vs Cowboys

Player Name	Over	Under
Jake Ferguson (DAL)	39.5 -120	39.5 -110
CeeDee Lamb (DAL)	78.5 -110	78.5 -120
George Kittle (SF)	56.5 -115	56.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for 49ers vs Cowboys

Player Name	Over	Under
Brock Purdy (SF)	18.5 -115	18.5 -115
Dak Prescott (DAL)	7.5 -110	7.5 -120

Cowboys Best Bets:

The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+6.65 Units / 41% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.15 Units / 27% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.50 Units / 42% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.55 Units / 25% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+4.20 Units / 12% ROI)

49ers Best Bets:

The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+7.95 Units / 34% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.00 Units / 18% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.85 Units / 38% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 19 games (+1.65 Units / 8% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have scored first in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.20 Units / 11% ROI)

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys art 2-4 (-2.4 Units / -36.92% ROI).

Cowboys are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.5 Units / -16.3% ROI
Cowboys are 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
Cowboys are 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.4 Units / ROI

49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers are 3-4 (-1.3 Units / -17.11% ROI).

49ers are 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.65 Units / -34.28% ROI
49ers are 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
49ers are 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

The Cowboys were undefeated (4-0) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Cowboys are winless (0-6) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .313.

The Cowboys are undefeated (3-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .536.

San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The 49ers are winless (0-3) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The 49ers are winless (0-5) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have averaged 0.17 epa per play against a light rush since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed 0.32 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The 49ers have been successful on 51.0% of plays they have ran with motion since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed their opponents to be successful on 47.0% of plays against motion since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The 49ers have run successful plays on 48.8% of rush attempts since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed successful plays on 46.6% of rush attempts since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Cowboys have a third down conversion rate of 46.4% since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The 49ers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 42.2% since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst in NFL.

Cowboys RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 4.6% of 108 carries this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed 10+ yards on just 6.6% of carries to RBs this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Cowboys have a third down conversion rate of 48.0% in the first half since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The 49ers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 44.8% in the first half since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 20% of plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Cowboys have committed 5 turnovers in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Cowboys have committed 9 turnovers in the red zone since the 2023 season — most in NFL.

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 57% of plays against a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats

The 49ers ran successful plays on 53% of rush attempts against a base front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 21% of rush attempts against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 51% of plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 53% of plays against a base front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats

The Cowboys defense has allowed a passer rating of just 58.1 with a light front (154 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 84.8.

The Cowboys defense has allowed a passer rating of 130.1 on motion plays (71 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 94.6.

The Cowboys defense has allowed successful plays on 33% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Cowboys defense has allowed successful plays on 14% of pass attempts with a light front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats

The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 10% of plays with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 14% of pass attempts with a light rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The 49ers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 41% on 3rd and long this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The 49ers defense allowed -0.56 epa per play with a light rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

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