Dolphins vs. Jaguars Prediction, Odds, Pick: NFL Week 1

The Dolphins, who fell only twice at home last season, will look to start the season on a high note against the Jaguars. 

So much went well for Miami last year, but it all crumbled late. 

Sitting at 11-4, the Dolphins dropped their final two regular season games to lose the division lead. It followed with a playoff loss to the Chiefs. 

Jacksonville experienced a similar season. They went 8-3 in their first 11 games but lost five of their last six to miss the postseason entirely. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my prediction for this Week 1 game. 

Dolphins vs. Jaguars Odds, Week 1

• Miami Dolphins Moneyline: -165
• Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline: +135
• Game Spread: Dolphins -3
• Game Over/Under: 49.5 Points

Dolphins vs. Jaguars Prediction, Week 1

I predict the Miami Dolphins cover the spread (-3, -110). However, it’s strictly a lean for me at the current number. 

With Tua Tagovailoa as their starting quarterback, Miami is a whopping 15-2 SU at home. 

Even if you exclude their 50-point blowout against the Broncos, Miami’s six home wins came by an average of 14.8 points per game last year. 

Conversely, Jacksonville lost three straight road games to close out the season. That said, I’m not sure Miami’s home-field edge is as strong against a fellow Florida team. 

That said, what this game comes down to is which unit you trust more: the Miami run defense or the Jacksonville pass defense. 

Jacksonville ranked 10th in pass EPA per play last season, but they lost Darious Williams, Rayshawn Jenkins, Jamal Agnew and Tre Herndon during the offseason. 

They added Darnell Savage to replace Jenkins, but Ronald Darby for Williams is a major downgrade. 

That should allow Miami, which ranked third in pass EPA per play last year, to wreak havoc. 

If Miami can gain an early lead — they led at halftime in 12 games last season — it could force Jacksonville into more obvious pass scenarios. 

That clearly benefits Miami, who lost Christian Wilkins this offseason, but added corner Kendall Fuller to create a nice 1-2 punch with Jalen Ramsey. 

As a result, it would be Miami against the spread or nothing. Alternatively, Miami’s moneyline price is short enough that it could make for a good parlay piece.

Dolphins vs. Jaguars Prediction: Tyreek Hill Receptions

My prediction for Dolphins vs. Jaguars is Tyreek Hill Over 7.5 Receptions (+115). 

The price is what’s driving this play. Last season, Hill cleared 7.5 receptions in nine contests and notched at least seven in 10 of 17 regular season games. 

He’ll get a Jaguars pass defense with notable departures that struggled to limit successful passes last year. 

Both Darious Williams (85.3 PFF coverage grade) and Tre Herndon (73.1 grade) left this offseason. Those were Jacksonville’s two best corners that played at least 50% of snaps. 

On Sunday, Hill will either line up against Ronald Darby or Tyson Campbell. Last year, that pair ranked 53rd and 155th in PFF’s coverage grades. 

Granted, Jacksonville did well to limit explosive plays — they ranked 10th in dropback EPA per play — but they simultaneously ranked 21st in passing success rate. 

Last season, Hill cleared this number in four of six games against teams 20th or worse in pass success rate. 

Add in Jacksonville has a new defensive coordinator, and I’ll pay to see them keep Hill under this number.