- The Eagles are a 5.5-point home favorite against the Commanders.
- Jalen Hurts is 16-0 SU as a home favorite against a team with a winning record.
- My Eagles vs. Commanders prediction is for Philadelphia to cover the spread.
It’s an NFC East rubber match in the NFC Championship game as the Eagles are set to host the Commanders.
Philadelphia escaped with a 28-22 win over the Rams in the divisional round to reach the championship. When Philadelphia hosted Washington, they captured a 26-18 win.
Washington’s 45-31 win over Detroit gave the Commanders a seventh straight win. Now, Jayden Daniels will look to become the first rookie quarterback to reach the Super Bowl.
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NFC Championship Odds: Eagles vs. Commanders
Eagles vs. Commanders Prediction
Based on Jalen Hurts’ strong record as a favorite against good teams and the Commanders’ weak rush defense, my Eagles vs. Commanders prediction is the Eagles Spread (-5.5, -110).
This game presents a tricky scenario as I’m holding an Eagles Super Bowl futures ticket.
There’s no interest in hedging, however, as Hurts is 16-0 SU as a home favorite against a team with a winning percentage north of 51%.
The average margin of victory for Hurts in those games: 12.1 points, including 13.4 points when he’s listed between -5 and -2.5.
Irrespective of venue, Hurts is 18-5 SU in such situations, including 16-3 when the opponent’s win percentage falls between 54% and 83%.
There are two big concerns for Washington in this game: their reliance on turnovers and their inability to stop the run.
Washington owns a +6 turnover differential in the playoffs. But their turnover differential against the Eagles this season is -4.
Washington lost the yards per play battle by 1.1 yards at Detroit, but five turnovers buoyed them to a 14-point win.
Most concerning about Washington’s divisional round performance? Their inability to stop the run.
Detroit rushed for 201 yards on only 23 attempts. Now, Washington has to face an Eagles team that rushed for 228 and 211 yards in two meetings with the Commanders.
Lastly, the Eagles haven’t lost a game Hurts finished since Week 4. So long as this spread stays under two key numbers – six and seven – it would be the Eagles or nothing.
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