Falcons vs Buccaneers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

min read
AP Photos
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2022, 9:13 AM
  • The Buccaneers (2-2) are -10 point favorites vs the Falcons (2-2)
  • Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Atlanta Falcons (2-2) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) on Oct. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Tampa.

The Buccaneers are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -10 (-110).

The Falcons vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Buccaneers vs Falcons & all NFL games with BetMGM

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 5

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Falcons+10 -11046.5 -110+350
Buccaneers -10 -11046.5 -110-450

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this Week 5 game with 79.8% confidence.

Falcons vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread this Week 5 with 55.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Falcons and Buccaneers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.05 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Anthony Firkser has hit the Receptions Under in his last 7 games (+7.20 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Olamide Zaccheaus has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.40 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Bryan Edwards has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Mike Evans has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.95 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Mike Evans has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.80 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Cole Beasley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Leonard Fournette has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Cole Beasley has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 71% ROI)
  • First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Buccaneers vs Falcons

    Player Name 1st TD Odds
    Leonard Fournette +450
    Mike Evans +550
    Chris Godwin +800
    Julio Jones +1200
    Russell Gage +1400

    Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Buccaneers vs Falcons

    Player Name Anytime TD Odds
    Leonard Fournette -165
    Mike Evans -115
    Chris Godwin +130
    Drake London +160
    Tyler Allgeier +170

    Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Buccaneers vs Falcons

    Player Name Over Under
    Leonard Fournette 24.5 -115 24.5 -115
    Drake London 59.5 -115 59.5 -110
    Olamide Zaccheaus 28.5 -110 28.5 -115
    Chris Godwin 59.5 -115 59.5 -110
    Rachaad White 12.5 -115 12.5 -115

    Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Buccaneers vs Falcons

    Player Name Over Under
    Tyler Allgeier 44.5 -110 44.5 -115
    Leonard Fournette 66.5 -115 66.5 -115
    Tom Brady 0.5 +105 0.5 -140
    Rachaad White 20.5 -115 20.5 -115
    Marcus Mariota 27.5 -115 27.5 -110
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.00 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+4.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+8.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 3Q Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.25 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons have gone 4-0 (+4 Units / 90.91% ROI).

    • Falcons are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
    • Falcons are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
    • Falcons are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / ROI

    Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers have gone 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.6% ROI).

    • Buccaneers are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -10.28% ROI
    • Buccaneers are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
    • Buccaneers are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI

    Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    The Falcons are winless (0-3) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .635.

    The Falcons are winless (0-1) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .491.

    The Falcons are 2-7 (.222) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .450.

    The Falcons are 1-9 (.100) when getting more than 3 points since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .309.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

    The Buccaneers are 15-3 (.833) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — second-best in NFL. The Falcons have turned the ball over 35 times since the 2021 season — fourth-most in NFL.

    The Buccaneers are 14-2 (.875) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season — second-best in NFL. The Falcons have averaged just 1.2 sacks per game over that time span — worst in NFL.

    The Buccaneers are 6-2 (.750) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .493.

    The Buccaneers are 11-2 (.846) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .563.

    Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    The Buccaneers have a third down conversion rate of 45.2% since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL. The Falcons defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 48.1% since the 2021 season — worst in NFL.

    The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 47.9% of rush attempts since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL. Falcons have allowed successful plays on 47.4% of rush attempts since the 2021 season — fifth-worst in NFL.

    The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 51.5% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — fifth-best in NFL. Falcons have allowed successful plays on 55.4% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

    The Falcons ran successful plays on 60.6% of rush attempts last week — third-best in NFL. Buccaneers allowed successful plays on 62.2% of rush attempts in Week 3 — worst in NFL.

    The Falcons ran 20.8% offensive plays in the red zone last week — third-best in NFL. Buccaneers allowed their opponent to run 22.1% of plays in the red zone in Week 3 — second-worst in NFL.

    The Falcons have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 30.7% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have pressured opposing QBs on 29.5% of passing plays since the 2021 season — third-best in NFL.

    Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Falcons have thrown 53% of their pass attempts 1 to 10 yards downfield this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 70%.

    The Falcons have run successful plays on 61% of plays in close and late situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

    The Falcons ran successful plays on 35% of rush attempts last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    The Falcons have run successful plays on 68% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Buccaneers threw the ball 77% of the time (108 Pass Attempts/140 plays) on second and 4-7 yards to go last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

    The Buccaneers have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 12% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

    The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 0% of rush attempts in the 1st half in Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

    The Buccaneers have run none of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

    Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Falcons defense has pressured opposing QBs on 17% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

    The Falcons defense averaged a sack every 32.9 pass attempts (593 Pass Attempts/18 Sacks) last season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 16.1.

    The Falcons defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 46% (15 completions/33 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 63%.

    The Falcons defense sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (18/593) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Buccaneers defense has blitzed 365 times since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

    The Buccaneers defense allowed 3 TD passes in Week 4 — tied for 2nd-most in NFL.

    The Buccaneers defense did not force a three and out in Week 4 — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

    The Buccaneers defense allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

    Looking to place a bet on this game with a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Buccaneers vs Falcons and all NFL games with BetMGM

    Bet on NFL Odds at BetMGM

    At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated NFL betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

    About the Author

    BetMGM Betting

    Read More @BETMGM

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.