Giants vs. Cowboys Prediction, Odds, Pick: Week 4, TNF

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Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb walks on the sideline during the second half of an NFL football game against the Green Bay Packers, Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024, in Arlington, Texas.
(AP Photo/Sam Hodde)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Sep 23, 2024, 3:04 PM
  • The Giants are predicted to be +4.5-point underdogs against the Cowboys.
  • Dak Prescott is 12-2 SU against the Giants in his career.
  • I predict the likeliest outcome for TNF is a Cowboys cover.

On the heels of two straight home losses, the Cowboys travel to face the Giants for an NFC East clash on Thursday Night Football.ย 

In terms of Week 3 results, these teams are heading in opposite directions. Dallas nearly staged a second-half comeback against Baltimore, but they ultimately fell 28-25.ย 

As for the Giants, they too let the Browns back into the game with a big lead but held on for a 21-15 win as road dogs in Cleveland.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the NFL betting lines and my Giants vs. Cowboys prediction.ย 

Giants vs. Cowboys Odds, TNF

  • Dallas Cowboys Moneyline: -225
  • New York Giants Moneyline: +185
  • Game Spread: Dallas Cowboys -4.5 (-110)
  • Game Over/Under: 44 Points

Giants vs. Cowboys Prediction, TNF

My Thursday Night Football prediction is the Dallas Cowboys Spread (-4.5, -110). However, this qualifies as a lean.ย 

History informs bettors that a Dallas win is fairly likely.ย 

Conference dogs off an outright win at +4.5 or higher are 22-65 SU in their next game, assuming the opponent lost by no more than 17 points in their last game.ย 

When those dogs are off a win by between one and 10 points, they fall to 14-53 SU, including 1-14 SU against an opponent that lost two straight games.ย 

That tells me the Cowboys wonโ€™t drop a third straight contest. Now for the key question: will they cover?ย 

Dak Prescott has owned divisional opponents when heโ€™s listed as a favorite.ย 

The Mississippi State product is 21-6 ATS as a favorite within the division, including 5-0 ATS last season.ย 

Just against New York last season, Prescott finished 2-0 ATS with a +72 point differential.ย 

However, neither of those games saw Prescott operate on short rest. In fact, Prescott is only 1-1 ATS as a Thursday favorite within the division, both of which came at home on Thanksgiving.ย 

That leads me to be wary of the Cowboys on Thursday night.ย 

If forced to bet it, I would lay the points with Dallas. However, Iโ€™d elect to use this as the first leg of a moneyline parlay or try to bet Dallas live at a better number.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.