- The Jacksonville Jaguars are +165 to make the postseason in 2025-26.
- Last year, the Jaguars finished two wins under expected due to a poor record in close games.
- I predict the Jaguars make the playoffs in 2025 behind a strong offense.
Based on NFL odds and Jaguars playoff odds, the Jacksonville Jaguars are predicted to miss the postseason this year.
Jacksonville, which enters the Liam Coen era in 2025, last reached the playoffs in 2023. This year, the Jaguars are +165 to make the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars are -200 to miss the playoffs next season.
Prediction: Will the Jacksonville Jaguars Make the Playoffs?
Based on the Jaguars’ strong offensive record last season and their expected positive regression, I predict the Jaguars Make the Playoffs (+165).
To me, the angle of attack on Jacksonville is to take Coen’s team to win the AFC South at a higher number.
Rather than doubling down on this market, I prefer backing the “no” on the Texans playoff chances. That way, I allow for the possibility I’m wrong on either the Titans or Colts.
That said, there’s a strong case for Jacksonville producing an improved season. Last season, the Jaguars finished 4-13 but ran wildly unlucky.
Due to a 1-4 record in field-goal games and a 3-10 record in touchdown games, the Jaguars finished two wins under expectation, per ftnfantasy.com.
Just within the division, Jacksonville finished 3-3 SU with all three defeats coming by four or fewer points, including both games against Houston.
What’s most impressive to me about Jacksonville is how the offense responded to increased adversity.
The Jaguars lost 39.3 adjusted games to injury on offense while playing the hardest set of opposing defenses.
Despite that record, Jacksonville finished 17th in offensive DVOA.
For 2025, Coen arrives fresh off radically improving Tampa Bay’s offense. Year over year, Tampa Bay went from 20th in DVOA in 2023 to seventh in 2024.
Jacksonville requires a strong offense next season due to the struggles of its defense. Last year, despite facing the easiest schedule of offenses, they finished 30th in defensive DVOA.
Based on 2024 offensive DVOA ratings, Jacksonville faces another easy schedule. In terms of those outputs, the Jags face the sixth-easiest set of offenses.
Most of that can be attributed to the weak offenses occupying the AFC South. As a result, it leaves the possibility that a strong offense could emerge and claim the division.
However, not since 2020 have multiple AFC South teams reached the postseason. As a result, I prefer taking Jacksonville at +300 to win the division.
Jacksonville Jaguars Week-by-Week Playoff Chances
| Week Number | Odds to Make Playoffs | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | +165 | 37.7% |
When Was the Last Time the Jacksonville Jaguars Won the Super Bowl?
The Jaguars are one of 12 teams to have never won the Super Bowl.
However, Jacksonville hasn’t operated for the entirety of the Super Bowl era, joining the NFL as an expansion franchise in 1995.
Jacksonville Jaguars Week-by-Week Super Bowl Odds
| Week Number | Odds to Win Super Bowl | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | +8000 | 1.23% |
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