- The Jets are a 3-point home underdog against the Rams.
- The Rams have won each of their last 10 games as road favorites.
- My Jets vs. Rams prediction is for Los Angeles to cover the spread.
Two teams off strong wins meet on Sunday at MetLife Stadium, with the Jets hosting the Rams.
Following a win over the 49ers last Thursday and Seattle’s loss against the Packers, the Rams suddenly hold the lead in the NFC West.
The Jets finally rewarded backers in Week 15 with a win and cover as road favorites against the Jaguars. However, the Jets are merely playing for pride at this point, with a 4-10 record.
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NFL Week 16 Odds: Jets vs. Rams
Jets vs. Rams Prediction
Based on Los Angeles’ improving offensive metrics and New York’s horrific defensive record, my Jets vs. Rams prediction is the Rams Spread (-3, -115).
This line strikes me as so fishy. New York, a team with literally zero to play for, is only a three-point home underdog against a team holding a division lead?
Maybe I’d consider the Jets if this line closed north of a key number, but this matchup is a straight nightmare for the Jets defense.
Since Week 8 – the point where the Rams returned Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua – the Rams rank eighth in offensive EPA per play.
Over that same timeframe, the Jets defense ranks 29th in the corresponding defensive categories.
Here’s the scary part: New York has played only one offense 12th or better in offensive DVOA for the season over that span.
That game? A 31-6 road loss to the Cardinals with extra time to prepare.
If you include their trip to Miami – an improving offense behind Tua Tagovailoa – New York is 0-2 against this number.
For the entire season, the Rams rank eighth in offensive DVOA, having faced the fourth-hardest set of opposing defenses.
Conversely, the Jets rank 26th in defensive DVOA for the season, having played the easiest schedule of opposing offenses!
History also likes this spot to back the Rams.
Road favorites off a win as road underdogs by 6-18 points are 66% ATS since 2003.
When those dogs fall between -4 and -1: 31-11-1 ATS (73.8%), including 8-1-1 ATS in non-conference games.
Take the Rams now before it moves off a key number. That said, it probably still gets my endorsement at -4 or better.
Betting Jets vs. Rams: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Jets vs. Rams public betting data and insights.
