- The Kansas City Chiefs are -400 to make the postseason in 2025-26.
- Not since the 2014-15 season has Kansas City missed the playoffs entirely.
- A case for the Kansas City Chiefs to miss the postseason in 2025.
Based on NFL odds and Chiefs playoff odds, the Kansas City Chiefs are predicted to make the postseason this year.
The Chiefs, which failed in their bid for a third straight Super Bowl win, are -400 to make the playoffs.
Bettors who believe the Chiefs will miss the playoffs can bet it at +310.
Prediction: Will the Kansas City Chiefs Make the Playoffs?
Based on the historical precedent for overperforming teams, I predict the Kansas City Chiefs Miss the Postseason (+300).
Do I actually believe the Chiefs miss the playoffs in 2025? Of course not.
What I will say is that the “no” side offers the only bettable option from a futures standpoint. Plus, some historical precedent exists that Kansas City falls out of the postseason.
Since 2021, five teams notched 10 or more wins while overperforming their expected win-loss record by 1.5 wins AND finishing 80% or better in field-goal games (Min. 5).
Those five teams – 2021 Packers and Titans, 2022 Chargers and Vikings and 2023 Browns – all saw at least a five-win dropoff the following season.
Also worth noting: none of those teams reached the playoffs the following season. It holds true for both the Packers and Titans, who claimed the top seeds in the conference that season.
Kansas City fits the profile of that team. The Chiefs finished 5-0 in field-goal games last season and 10-0 in games decided by seven or fewer points.
Per ftnfantasy.com, Kansas City finished with 15 wins off 10.5 expected, thanks to that record in close games.
That marks the biggest overperformance of any team in 2024.
Plus, the Chiefs face one of the league’s most difficult schedules in 2025. Based on opponent win totals, Kansas City faces the league’s sixth-hardest schedule.
As a result, it’s a bet on Kansas City to miss the playoffs or nothing for 2025.
Kansas City Chiefs Week-by-Week Playoff Chances
| Week Number | Odds to Make Playoffs | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | -400 | 80% |
When Was the Last Time the Kansas City Chiefs Won the Super Bowl?
The Chiefs won the Super Bowl in the 2023-24 season, their second straight championship and third in the last five years. In Super Bowl LIX, Kansas City failed in its bid for a third straight title.
Entering the 2025-26 regular season, Kansas City ranks amongst the current favorites in the Super Bowl Odds.
Kansas City Chiefs Week-by-Week Super Bowl Odds
| Week Number | Odds to Win Super Bowl | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | +800 | 11.1% |
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