Chiefs Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Chiefs win total sits at 11.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Kansas City’s bid for a third straight Super Bowl ended in 2025 with a blowout defeat against the Eagles. Now, the Chiefs look to clear their season win total for the second straight season. 

But it should be recognized the Chiefs enter 2025 a massive regression candidate. Last year, Kansas City finished 4.5 wins over expectation thanks to a 10-0 record in touchdown games. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Kansas City’s 2025 win total and my Chiefs win total prediction. 

Chiefs Win Total Odds

The Chiefs’ season win total is set at 11.5 games. 

Oddsmakers project the outcome as a virtual coin flip. Both over 11.5 wins and under 11.5 wins are juiced to -110 for an implied probability of 52.4%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all AFC West teams:

• Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Wins
• Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5 Wins
• Denver Broncos: 9.5 Wins
• Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5 Wins

Chiefs Win Total Prediction 2025

Kansas City Chiefs Under 11.5 Wins (-110)

Based on Kansas City’s overwhelming regression metrics and the improvements around the AFC West, I predict the Chiefs finish Under 11.5 Wins (-110). 

BET: Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins @ -102

BET: Chiefs Under 11.5 Wins @ -118

Some may call it a “championship” mentality, but I’ll call the Chiefs’ 2024 performance what it actually is: lucky. 

Everyone knows the story by now. The Chiefs won 15 games in 2024, with five coming by three points or fewer and 10 by seven points or fewer. 

With Patrick Mahomes as the starting quarterback, Kansas City finished 5-0 in the division with a four-point average margin of victory. 

That’s simply unsustainable given the improvements made by the three chasers in the AFC West. 

Plus, history tells us that the Chiefs are more likely to regress than not based on the performance of similar teams. 

Since 2021, five teams notched 10 or more wins while overperforming their expected record by 1.5 wins AND finishing 80% or better in field-goal games (min. five). 

Those five teams – 2021 Packers, 2021 Titans, 2022 Chargers, 2022 Vikings and 2023 Browns – all saw at least a five-win dropoff the following season. 

I should also mention that none of those teams returned to the postseason the following year. 

Even if you set that aside, two other factors render the Chiefs worth a fade in 2025. 

First is that fatigue must exist amongst this group from playing the maximum amount of games in three straight years. 

I don’t claim to be a doctor, but that could impact a team that ranked 14th in adjusted games lost in 2024. For reference, the Chiefs ranked sixth in 2023. 

Additionally, the schedule does no favors for the Chiefs. 

While the road schedule is fairly easy – only three games vs. teams that won 10+ games last year – they face seven such games at home. 

As a result, I like taking the under on Kansas City’s win total. 

Most Wins in Chiefs History

The Chiefs’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 15. That came last year in the 2024 NFL season after previously notching 14 wins in 2022 and 2020.

Kansas City appeared in the Super Bowl in all three seasons, winning over the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022. Those of three of six total Super Bowl appearances for the Chiefs.

Fewest Wins in Chiefs History

The Chiefs’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is two. The Chiefs have won just two games in a season three times in their existence, in 1977, 2008, and 2012.