Chiefs Over Under Wins, 2024 NFL Win Totals

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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes scrambles in the pocket during an NFL football against the Los Angeles Chargers game Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Jayne Kamin-Oncea)
(AP Photo/Jayne Kamin-Oncea)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Sep 23, 2024, 12:49 PM
  • The Chiefsโ€™ 2024 preseason win total is set at 11.5 wins at BetMGM.
  • Kansas City produced fewest wins in the regular season since 2017 last year.
  • Will an easy schedule allow Kansas City to clear a lofty win total?

For the 2024 NFL season, the Chiefs win total sits at 11.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook.ย 

Kansas City won its fewest regular-season games since 2017 last year. However, it ultimately didnโ€™t matter with Patrick Mahomes and company defending their Super Bowl title.ย 

Kansas City returns most of their core personnel for 2024, including most defensive starters from a unit that surrendered the second-fewest points per game last season.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the NFL betting lines for Kansas Cityโ€™s 2024 win total.ย 

Chiefs Win Total Odds

The Chiefsโ€™ season win total is set at 11.5 games.ย 

Oddsmakers rate the Chiefs as more likely to win 12 games this season. Currently, Kansas City is -115 to clear their season win total, an implied probability of 53.5%

Comparatively, the defending Super Bowl champions are -105 to win 11 or fewer games in 2024, an implied probability of 51.2%.ย 

Here are the 2024 NFL win totals for all AFC West teams:

Chiefs Win Total Prediction 2024

LEAN Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins (-120)

History says taking overs on teams with double-digit win totals isnโ€™t a winning strategy.ย 

However, if thereโ€™s a team to clear a lofty number this season, Kansas City feels the likeliest candidate.ย 

The biggest concern with Kansas City is their troubles defending the run last year. During the regular season, they ranked 28th in rush EPA per play despite sitting 15th in success rate.ย 

The good news? They ranked third in passing EPA per play and second in passing success rate allowed.ย 

Of course, this is still a team that lost L’Jarius Sneed to Tennessee during the offseason, which could see their pass defense negatively regress.ย 

It also might not matter when youโ€™re betting on a Kansas City team with the best quarterback in the league and an improved receiving corps year over year.ย 

Despite winning 11 games last year and reaching the pinnacle of football, Kansas City ranked eighth in passing success rate and 15th in pass EPA per play during the regular season.ย 

Finally, even though Kansas City faces a first-place schedule, the opponent slate doesnโ€™t look bad.ย 

The first six opponents are tough โ€“ Baltimore, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans and San Francisco โ€“ but the remainder is fairly comfortable.ย 

Of their final 11 opponents, Kansas City faces only one game against a team with a win total higher than nine wins (Week 11 at Buffalo).ย 

All told, the Chiefs face the 12th-easiest schedule based on opponent win totals.ย 

As a result, Iโ€™d be more inclined to take the over rather than betting against Patrick Mahomes.

Chiefs Over Under Wins, Live Odds

Week NumberWin TotalOver OddsUnder Odds
Preseason11.5-115-105
Week 212.5+110-130
Week 312.5-110-110
Week 412.5-120+100

Most Wins in Chiefs History

The Chiefs’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 14. In 2020 and 2022, the Chiefs won 14 games.

Kansas City appeared in the Super Bowl in both seasons, winning the most recent over the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022. Those of two of five total Super Bowl appearances for the Chiefs.

Fewest Wins in Chiefs History

The Chiefs’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is two. The Chiefs have won just two games in a season three times in their existence, in 1977, 2008, and 2012.

NFL Futures Betting at BetMGM

BetMGM is the premier destination for NFL futuresย throughout the year.

Whether you’re a new bettor browsing win totals in May, a casual fan placing a conference champion bet in August, or a longtime diehard breaking down division winner odds in October, there are options for everyone.

Sign in to your account today โ€” or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome bonus โ€” to start betting. And donโ€™t forget to check updated sportsbook bonuses and promos each day of the year.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.