Lions vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2022, 9:11 AM
  • The Patriots (1-3) are -3.5 point favorites vs the Lions (1-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Detroit Lions (1-3) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (1-3) on Oct. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Foxborough.

The Patriots are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Lions vs. Patriots Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.

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Lions vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 5

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Lions+3.5 -11546.5 -110+145
Patriots -3.5 -10546.5 -110-175

Lions vs. Patriots Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this Week 5 game with 57.0% confidence.

Lions vs Patriots Spread Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lions will cover the spread this Week 5 with 56.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Lions and Patriots, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Lions Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Lions players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.35 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Josh Reynolds has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Jamaal Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jared Goff has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.60 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Hunter Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Kendrick Bourne has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jonnu Smith has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Hunter Henry has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.40 Units / 38% ROI)
  • First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Patriots vs Lions

    Player Name 1st TD Odds
    Damien Harris +450
    Jamaal Williams +550
    Rhamondre Stevenson +600
    Amon-Ra St. Brown +700
    T.J. Hockenson +1000

    Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Patriots vs Lions

    Player Name Anytime TD Odds
    Damien Harris -175
    Jamaal Williams -145
    Rhamondre Stevenson -120
    Amon-Ra St. Brown -110
    T.J. Hockenson +140

    Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Patriots vs Lions

    Player Name Over Under
    Jamaal Williams 10.5 -115 10.5 -115
    Rhamondre Stevenson 16.5 -115 16.5 -115
    Damien Harris 9.5 -110 9.5 -120
    Jakobi Meyers 43.5 -115 43.5 -115
    DeVante Parker 36.5 -115 36.5 -115

    Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Patriots vs Lions

    Player Name Over Under
    Jared Goff 3.5 -120 3.5 -110
    Jamaal Williams 63.5 -115 63.5 -115
    Damien Harris 61.5 -110 61.5 -115
    Rhamondre Stevenson 54.5 -115 54.5 -115
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+7.40 Units / 106% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+6.05 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the Team Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.90 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.90 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the Game Total Over in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
  • Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions have gone 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).

    • Lions are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -56.25% ROI
    • Lions are 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
    • Lions are 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.4 Units / ROI

    Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 1-2 (-1.1 Units / -25.58% ROI).

    • Patriots are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -43.96% ROI
    • Patriots are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
    • Patriots are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

    Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

    The Lions are winless (0-5-1) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .493.

    The Lions are 1-3-1 (.200) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .735.

    The Lions are 1-9-1 (.091) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.

    The Lions are 1-12 (.077) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL. The Patriots have intercepted 26 passes since the 2021 season — tied for second-most in NFL.

    New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

    The Patriots are 7-2 (.778) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season — ninth-best in NFL. The Lions have intercepted 12 passes since the 2021 season — tied for second-fewest in NFL.

    The Patriots are winless (0-7) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .195.

    The Patriots are winless (0-4) when rushing at least 4 yards less than 5 times in a game since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .321.

    The Patriots are 6-4 (.600) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season — tied for 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .495.

    Additional Matchup Notes for Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots

    The Patriots have run 51.0% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. Lions have allowed their opponents to run 50.7% of plays in their territory since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL.

    Patriots RBs have 4 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for third-most in NFL. The Lions have allowed 10 rushing TDs this season — most in NFL.

    The Patriots have thrown for 7.8 yards per attempt this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed 7.5 yards per dropback this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.

    The Lions are averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season — second-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed 5.4 yards per carry this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.

    The Lions have scored on 47.8% of their drives in the second half this season — third-best in NFL. The Patriots defense has allowed scores on 47.6% of opponent drives in the second half this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

    The Lions are 1-12 (.077) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL. The Patriots have intercepted 26 passes since the 2021 season — tied for second-most in NFL.

    Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Lions ran successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the red zone last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

    The Lions have 4 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — tied for most in NFL.

    The Lions have faced a blitz just 8% of the time this season — tied for 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

    The Lions have scored 14 TDs in the red zone this season — tied for most in NFL.

    New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Patriots have thrown the ball 17% of the time (2 Pass Attempts/12 plays) on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

    The Patriots ran successful plays on 59% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

    The Patriots ran successful plays on 86% of plays in the 3rd quarter in Week 4 — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

    The Patriots have not gone three and out on any of their drives in the 3rd quarter this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

    Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Lions defense has allowed 10 rushing TDs this season — most in NFL.

    The Lions defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 75% in Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

    The Lions defense allowed successful plays on 79% of pass attempts in the 1st half in Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

    The Lions defense has allowed 31.8 points per game to opposing offenses (127 points / 4 games) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20.9.

    New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Patriots defense allowed a passer rating of just 73.4 (539 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

    The Patriots defense allowed just 6.6 points per game to opposing offenses (112 points / 17 games) in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

    The Patriots defense allowed 9 rushing TDs on 450 carries (50 Carries Per TD) last season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 27.9.

    Offenses facing the Patriots targeted TEs 55% of the time (6 Pass Attempts/11 plays) in the red zone this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.